Every constituent, scored 0–10 on Downside Risk (lower = safer), Growth Quality, and Exponential Potential, with price, YTD, a base-case fair value (and its bear–bull range), and a one-line take. Click a ticker for the full interactive report. ← research hub
◆ Accumulation band for XLU itself: roughly $45–$46 — the index is richly priced, so dollar-cost-averaging on dips toward the 50/200-day average (near $45) beats chasing new highs.
XLU (market-cap-weighted) vs RSPU (equal-weight), both rebased to 100 a year ago. When the cap-weighted line pulls ahead, the biggest names are carrying the index. Past year: XLU +13% vs RSPU +16% — a -3 pt spread, so broad participation — concentration is LOW.
How many of the 4 names are actually participating — a check on whether the index is broad-based or driven by a handful of mega-caps. Right now breadth looks broad.
| Name | Verdict | Risk | Growth | Exp | Price | YTD | Fair value (range) | Entry zone | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCG PG&E Corporation | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +6.1% | $19 ($13–$24) | — | PG&E is a large California regulated electric-and-gas utility, freshly out of bankruptcy and rebuilding trust, trading at a deep utility discount (~10× forward core EPS vs a ~9% EPS growth plan) — the cheapness is *the compensation for* an unusually fat tail (wildfire liability), so it is a Watch… |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | Watch | 5 | 7 | 6 | $239 | -32.3% | $265 ($175–$345) | — | A best-in-class US nuclear-and-gas generation fleet (32,400 MW, now enlarged by the January-2026 Calpine acquisition) whose stock has fallen ~41% from its high even as FY26 adjusted-EPS guidance of $11.00–$12.00 was affirmed and analysts model ~16% forward EPS growth — the setup is a beaten-down… |
| CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 4 | — | +16.4% | $46 ($36–$56) | — | CenterPoint is a well-run, Houston-centred regulated electric-and-gas utility riding a genuinely unusual tailwind — 12.2 GW of firmly committed industrial load and 8 GW of data-center demand to be energized by 2029 — but at 27× trailing earnings for ~8% growth and a Street target essentially at the… |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | Watch | 5 | 6 | 4 | — | +24.5% | $122 ($90–$148) | — | Entergy is a Gulf-South regulated electric utility that has stumbled into one of the best structural setups in the sector — surging industrial and hyperscaler (data-center) load in Louisiana and Texas is driving ~13% forward EPS growth, roughly double a normal utility — but it is financing that… |
| GEV GE Vernova Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 6 | — | +70.3% | $1130 ($640–$1420) | — | GE Vernova is a real, improving energy-transition franchise riding an AI-driven power-demand supercycle — $163B backlog, guidance raised, a net-cash balance sheet — but after a +120% 12-month run the stock already prices in the good news, so we rate it Watch: a high-quality name to own on weakness… |
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 4 | — | -14.2% | $160 ($95–$215) | — | NRG is a cheap, cash-generative Texas-centric power retailer-plus-generator riding a genuine electricity-demand tailwind (data centers, electrification, its own 1.5 GW Texas Energy Fund buildout), reaffirming ~$8.90 midpoint adjusted EPS and ~$3B free-cash-flow guidance for 2026 — but it carries… |
| VST Vistra Corp. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 5 | — | -6.4% | $185 ($95–$265) | — | Vistra is a large integrated Texas/East merchant power generator + retailer trading at ~16× FY26E and ~13× FY27E EPS after a −31% drawdown, with genuine AI-datacenter demand behind it (Meta nuclear PPAs, the pending 5,500-MW Cogentrix gas buy) and a freshly minted investment-grade balance sheet… |
| ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | Hold | 4 | 6 | 2 | — | +5.5% | $179 ($150–$210) | — | Atmos is a textbook, well-run regulated natural-gas distributor — steady ~8-9% EPS growth funded by a multi-year rate-base build, low beta, a 40-year dividend-raise culture — but at ~23× earnings and a price essentially on top of the Street target, you are paying a full multiple for a modest… |
| AWK American Water Works Company, In | Hold | 4 | 6 | 2 | — | +4.9% | $138 ($110–$168) | — | American Water is the highest-quality, most defensive water utility in the US — a rate-regulated monopoly compounding EPS ~7–9% on relentless rate-base growth — but at ~22× forward earnings against that mid-single-digit growth it offers a bond-like return with equity risk, so we rate it Watch: a… |
| NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | +10.0% | $95 ($67–$106) | — | NextEra is two businesses stapled together — America's largest regulated utility (Florida Power & Light) and the largest US clean-energy developer (NextEra Energy Resources) — that together offer a visible, management-guided 8%+ adjusted-EPS CAGR through 2032 funded by heavy capex and heavy debt… |
| AEE Ameren Corporation | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +15.2% | $118 ($87–$133) | — | Ameren is a high-quality, low-beta Missouri/Illinois regulated electric-and-gas utility compounding earnings at a dependable ~6–8% off a growing rate base — but at 21× earnings and ~$121 street consensus the market already pays for that steadiness, so there is no discount to buy and the verdict is… |
| CMS CMS Energy Corporation | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +11.2% | $77 ($63–$86) | — | CMS is a textbook low-beta regulated Michigan utility — reliable ~7–8% EPS growth, a 2.9% dividend, management reaffirming $3.83–$3.90 FY26 adjusted EPS — that is trading at roughly its own fair value, so the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling. Nothing is broken; nothing is cheap. Watch. |
| SO The Southern Company | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +12.4% | $100 ($78–$114) | — | Southern is a best-in-class regulated Southeastern utility riding real data-center-driven load growth, but at ~25× trailing earnings for ~9% EPS growth and a 3% yield, the stock already prices the good news — a hold-for-income name, not a total-return buy at today's price. |
| WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +12.7% | $120 ($98–$138) | — | WEC is a best-in-class Midwest regulated utility — 4.8M customers, a $28B capital plan, a 22-year dividend-growth streak, and a low 0.47 beta — but at ~21× forward earnings for ~7% EPS growth it is priced like a premium bond proxy with little margin of safety, so we rate it Watch: own it for… |
| AEP American Electric Power Company, | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | $139 | +20.1% | $137 ($110–$168) | — | AEP is a large, low-beta regulated electric utility riding a genuine once-in-a-generation demand tailwind (63 GW of signed/pending data-center and industrial load by 2030 driving an $78B capital plan and ~11% rate-base growth), but the earnings growth this converts to is a steady 7–9% — good for a… |
| DTE DTE Energy Company | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | +19.4% | $152 ($128–$170) | — | DTE Energy is a well-run, low-beta Michigan regulated electric-and-gas utility compounding earnings at a steady ~7–8% off a growing rate base — but at ~$154 it trades near its own fair value and the Street's, carries ~6.6× net-debt/EBITDA and structurally negative free cash flow (a normal utility… |
| EVRG Evergy, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +21.6% | $91 ($72–$106) | — | Evergy is a slow, dependable Kansas–Missouri regulated electric monopoly whose earnings grow at a mid-single-digit clip that data-center "large-load" demand could nudge toward 8%+ late this decade — but at the 52-week high, a full valuation, a 3.1% dividend and a Watch-grade balance sheet, the… |
| LNT Alliant Energy Corporation | Hold | 5 | 5 | 4 | — | +20.0% | $79 ($63–$92) | — | Alliant is a well-run Midwest regulated electric-and-gas utility riding a real data-center demand wave (3.4 GW of contracted load, five executed agreements) that supports its decade-plus ~6% EPS growth track record — but at ~23× forward earnings, near a 52-week high, on 5.7× net-debt/EBITDA… |
| NI NiSource Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 4 | — | +14.5% | $49 ($38–$60) | — | NiSource is a well-run, fully-regulated gas-and-electric utility whose new twist is a data-center growth engine — GenCo collaborations with Alphabet and Amazon in Indiana that let management *raise* its 2026–2033 adjusted-EPS CAGR guidance to 9–10%. The stock already trades near the Street target… |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporatio | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +23.3% | $100 ($76–$115) | — | Pinnacle West is a well-run, single-state Arizona regulated electric utility riding a genuine data-center/AI load boom (management guides 4–6% weather-normalized sales growth), but it is a capex-heavy, negative-free-cash-flow, rate-base-bound monopoly trading at a 52-week high with an overbought… |
| XEL Xcel Energy Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | $82 | +11.0% | $84 ($66–$100) | — | Xcel is a well-run, low-beta regulated electric-and-gas monopoly riding a genuine multi-year rate-base and data-center demand tailwind — but it funds that growth with heavy debt and equity issuance, generates *negative* free cash flow through the buildout, earns a capped regulated return, and… |
| FE FirstEnergy Corp. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 2 | — | +8.4% | $50 ($40–$58) | — | FirstEnergy is a six-state regulated electric utility executing a large multi-year transmission-and-distribution ("Energize365") rate-base build; it offers a ~3.7% dividend and steady high-single-digit EPS growth, but it carries heavy leverage, negative free cash flow during the build, and a… |
| SRE Sempra | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +5.4% | $100 ($78–$122) | — | Sempra is a regulated Texas + California utility with a visible $65B five-year rate-base growth plan and management guiding 7–9% long-term EPS growth, trading near fair value at ~18× forward adjusted EPS and a 2.8% yield — a reasonable defensive income holding, but the heavy leverage (5.4×… |
| AES The AES Corporation | Hold | 8 | 5 | 4 | — | +1.7% | $16 ($10–$22) | — | AES is a cheap, ~4.8%-yielding global power producer pivoting hard into US renewables and data-center contracts — the demand story is real, but it is one of the most leveraged names in the S&P 500 (7.8× net-debt/EBITDA, negative FCF), growth is only mid-single-digit, and there is zero expert… |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group | Hold | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | +1.6% | $85 ($66–$100) | — | PEG is a well-run, predominantly regulated New Jersey electric-and-gas utility with a rare no-new-equity funding plan and a carbon-free nuclear fleet — a genuine sleep-at-night income compounder — but at ~$82 it trades near the Street's own target with only a ~4% base-case upside plus a ~3.2%… |
| DUK Duke Energy Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +10.6% | $137 ($110–$158) | — | Duke Energy is a large, well-run regulated electric-and-gas utility — a low-beta, ~3.3%-yielding rate-base compounder growing adjusted EPS ~5-7% a year — trading right on top of the Street's target with no expert conviction behind it; own it for defensive income, not for capital appreciation. Watch. |
| EXC Exelon Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | $48 | +9.8% | $49 ($40–$58) | — | Exelon is a pure-play, fully-regulated transmission-and-distribution (T&D) utility across six utilities in the mid-Atlantic and Illinois — a low-beta, dividend-paying bond-proxy that earns a regulated return on a growing rate base, grows EPS ~6%/yr, and trades right on top of both Street consensus… |
| PPL PPL Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +5.3% | $37 ($30–$44) | — | PPL is a well-run, low-beta, three-state regulated electric-and-gas utility guiding to 6–8% annual EPS growth through 2029 — a legitimate income compounder, but with the stock near our fair value, a thin margin of safety, and no accelerating growth or expert conviction, it is a Watch, not a buy… |
| D Dominion Energy, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | +19.0% | $71 ($56–$84) | — | Dominion is a Virginia-centric regulated electric utility riding a genuine data-center demand tailwind, but it is priced right on top of the Street ($69.75 vs $70.43 consensus), carries 6.5× net-debt/EBITDA, runs deeply negative free cash flow through a multi-year capex build, and grows earnings at… |
| ES Eversource Energy | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +10.6% | $76 ($58–$90) | — | Eversource is a New England regulated electric-and-gas utility finishing a painful cleanup — it has exited offshore wind and just closed the Aquarion water sale to become a "pure-play pipes and wires" monopoly — but the reward for that de-risking is only a 5–7% earnings grower with a 4.1% dividend… |
| EIX Edison International | Hold | 8 | 4 | 2 | — | +26.1% | $74 ($50–$92) | — | Edison International is a cheap (8× trailing, 4.5% yield) Southern California regulated electric utility with a real, regulator-backed 5–7% earnings-growth engine — but the price is low for a reason: an open-ended, hard-to-quantify wildfire liability (the January 2025 Eaton Fire) and 5.7× leverage… |
| ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | +14.8% | $108 ($88–$124) | — | Con Edison is a 200-year-old, exceptionally low-beta (0.27) regulated New York utility that reliably grows earnings ~6–7% and has raised its dividend for 52 straight years — a genuine bond-proxy — but at ~19× earnings and slightly *above* both our fair value and the Street's own price target, you… |