If owned, an income/defensive sleeve position (~1–3%), not a growth holding
Next catalyst
2026-08-06 Q2'26 earnings (Street EPS $0.87)
Single biggest risk
Regulatory / rate-case outcomes and rate-cap sensitivity on a highly levered (5.8× net-debt/EBITDA) capex-heavy balance sheet
One-line thesis. Evergy is a slow, dependable Kansas–Missouri regulated electric monopoly whose earnings grow at a mid-single-digit clip that data-center "large-load" demand could nudge toward 8%+ late this decade — but at the 52-week high, a full valuation, a 3.1% dividend and a Watch-grade balance sheet, the stock is priced about right, offering yield-plus-modest-growth rather than a mispricing to exploit.
◆ Synthos call — HoldEVRG is a solid business largely reflected at ~$91 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$77.
Downside Risk (lower = safer)
5/10 · Moderate
Low beta (0.52) & regulated-monopoly stability, but 5.8× net-debt/EBITDA and a rate-cap-sensitive model; now at the 52-wk high, RSI 74.
Growth Quality
5/10 · Moderate
~6% revenue / ~10% EPS forward CAGR, steady regulated ROE ~8.7%, but persistently negative FCF from heavy capex.
Exponential Potential
3/10 · Low
Data-center large-load demand is the one accelerant; a $20B regulated utility is structurally capped — no multibagger here.
⚖ Reverse-DCF cross-checkMarket-implied growth ≈ 11%/yrTo justify today’s $88, earnings would have to compound roughly 11% a year for 10 years (9% discount rate). Analysts forecast ~9%/yr, so the market is pricing in MORE than what the Street expects.What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Buy — CoreOwn it as a foundation — start or add now, size it for years, let dips be gifts.
Buy — TacticalGood price + confirmed trend + a defined exit — buy the setup, not a marriage.
WatchWe want the business, just not at this price/setup — act only when the listed trigger hits.
HoldFine to keep if you own it — no reason to buy more; new money does better elsewhere.
AvoidDon't own it — the problem is the business or the expectations, so a cheaper price won't fix it.
In plain English
Evergy is the electric company for about 1.7 million homes and businesses in Kansas and Missouri. It is a government-regulated monopoly: it owns the power plants and the wires, and a state commission decides how much it can charge. That makes its profits steady and predictable — but also capped, because regulators won't let it earn too much.
Is the stock cheap or expensive? It's priced about right — not a bargain, not wildly overpriced. You're paying a fair price for a steady dividend (about 3.1% a year) and slow, reliable growth. Right now the stock is sitting at its highest price of the past year, so you're not getting a discount.
Our verdict is Watch — a fine, boring income stock, but there's no obvious bargain here today, so no rush.
Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
Downside Risk 5/10 (middle of the road). The business barely moves with the market (very low volatility), which is safe — but the company carries a lot of debt to build power lines, and its profits depend on regulators approving rate increases.
Growth Quality 5/10 (average). It grows slowly and steadily. Nothing exciting, nothing broken.
Exponential Potential 3/10 (low). This will never double overnight. The one wildcard is that AI data centers need enormous amounts of electricity, and Evergy is signing up big new power customers — that could speed growth up modestly.
The one big worry: Evergy has to keep borrowing heavily to build infrastructure, and its earnings live and die by what state regulators allow it to charge. A bad rate ruling or higher-for-longer interest rates would hurt.
Solid = price · dashed = 50-day average · dotted = 200-day average · amber = 52-week high/low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Blue crossing above amber (bars flip green) = momentum turning up; below (bars red) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLU (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = EVRG · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLU (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
Price$88.13
Market cap$20B
P/E trailing4×
P/E FY26E / FY27E21× / 19×
EV / Sales6.0×
EV / EBITDA13.1×
Gross margin41.5%
Net margin14.7%
Dividend yield3.12%
Beta0.524
52-wk range$68 – $88
RSI(14)74
50 / 200-DMA$83 / $79
12-mo return+27% (SPY +21%)
Street target$90 ($82–$99)
Analyst grades7 Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell
FMP ratingB-
Next earnings2026-08-05
What the experts actually said 0 traceable claims on EVRG · showing the highest-conviction voices
Every claim reconciles to a real claim_id in the Synthos knowledge base — this is the evidence the verdict is built on, not vibes. Management (the company itself) is shown but half-weighted; one cautionary voice is included on purpose.
1. What it is
Evergy, Inc. (NASDAQ: EVRG) is an integrated, regulated electric utility serving roughly 1.62–1.7 million customers across Kansas and Missouri. It generates power from a diversified mix — coal, nuclear (uranium), natural gas, hydro, landfill gas, and a growing wind/solar renewable portfolio — and owns the transmission and distribution network (~10,100 circuit miles of high-voltage transmission, ~39,800 miles of overhead distribution, ~13,000 miles of underground). It was formed in 2017 (the Westar Energy / Great Plains Energy merger), IPO/listed 2018, and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. CEO: David A. Campbell. ~4,731 employees. Fiscal year ends December 31.
This is a classic rate-base-growth story: the utility invests capital in the grid and generation, the regulator sets an allowed return on that "rate base," and earnings grow roughly with the rate base. Evergy's own long-term framing is 6–8%+ adjusted-EPS annual growth through 2030 (see §9).
Revenue mix (from filings):
By segment: FMP reports a single Electric Utility segment — this is a pure-play regulated electric business, no meaningful non-utility diversification. (Segment file dates are stale/pre-merger legacy rows; the current company is one electric segment.)
By geography: 100% United States (Kansas + Missouri). FMP's geographic-segmentation array is empty because the entire footprint is domestic — this is a single-country, two-state operator with zero international exposure (a stability positive, a growth-ceiling negative).
The strategic swing factor management keeps returning to is "large-load" customers — data centers — signing electric service agreements (ESAs) under a new large-load power-service (LLPS) tariff, which is the one credible accelerant to the otherwise-modest growth rate.
2. The expert thesis — why the panel is bullish (traceable)
There is no expert coverage of EVRG in the Synthos knowledge base.total_claims = 0, net_bullish_voices = 0, and there are no cautionary voices either. No podcast, letter, or interview in our distilled panel discusses Evergy.
That is itself an honest signal: Evergy is a small, slow, regulated Midwest utility — exactly the kind of name that high-conviction, exponential-hunting investors do not talk about. This verdict is therefore fundamentals- and quant-driven, built from FMP financials, analyst estimates, the technical block, and management's own SEC-filed guidance (half-weighted, §9). There is no conviction premium and no conviction discount applied here — just the numbers. Any reader looking for "smart-money" corroboration should note there is none in the KB, in either direction.
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):
Score
0–10
The read
Downside Risk(lower = safer)
5 · Moderate
Beta 0.52 and a regulated-monopoly revenue base make the equity low-volatility, but net-debt/EBITDA 5.8× (typical-but-high for utilities), a 0.45 current ratio, persistently negative FCF, and rate-case dependence offset the stability. Trading at the 52-wk high with RSI 74 removes any valuation cushion.
Growth Quality
5 · Average
~6% forward revenue CAGR and ~10% forward EPS CAGR (FY25→FY30E), steady regulated ROE ~8.7%, ROIC ~4.5%. Durable but unspectacular; the negative FCF (capex > operating cash flow) is the quality blemish.
Exponential Potential
3 · Low
One real accelerant — data-center large-load demand pushing EPS growth from ~6% toward 8%+ by 2028 (management's own framing). But a $20B regulated utility with a two-state footprint and a regulator-capped return is structurally incapable of a multibagger.
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We deliberately do not attach probabilities: the base case is by definition the expected path, so a weighted blend would just restate it with false precision. Instead the cases bound the range, and the scores above summarize them.
Case
Key assumptions
Fair value
Bull
Data-center ESAs ramp faster; EPS growth sustains at the top of the 8%+ band; rate cases go cleanly; rates ease. Apply ~22× to FY27E EPS ~$4.65.
~$106 (+20%)
Base(our anchor)
Estimates roughly hit — FY27E EPS $4.55; a steady ~6–8% regulated compounder earns a ~20× multiple in line with peers.
~$91 (+3%)
Bear
A hostile rate case, higher-for-longer rates pressuring a levered balance sheet, or data-center demand disappoints; multiple de-rates to ~17× on FY27E EPS ~$4.25.
~$72 (−18%)
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$91 (+3%), with the full $72–$106 span as the honest range. This anchor sits essentially on top of the Street's $90.14 consensus — a rare case where our independent model and the sell-side converge, precisely because a regulated utility's earnings and multiple are highly bounded. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders (durable high returns on capital) from exponentials (accelerating, multi-baggers-from-here). EVRG is neither an exponential nor a high-return compounder — it is a regulated rate-base grower:
Forward growth: revenue CAGR FY25→FY30E ~6.2% ($5.92B → $8.01B est); EPS CAGR ~9.8% ($3.71 → $5.93 est) as rate base and large-load revenue grow.
Acceleration (the 2nd derivative): modestly positive and the one interesting thing here. Management guides EPS growth to exceed 8% beginning in 2028 vs ~6% near-term, driven by data-center large-load additions (five ESAs signed as of Q1'26). Estimate path: EPS +7.9% (FY26E) → +7.0% (FY27E) → +8.9% (FY28E) → +10.2% (FY29E) → +8.7% (FY30E) — a gentle upward tilt, not an inflection.
Room to run: effectively capped. A regulated monopoly earns a commission-set return on rate base; it cannot "win share" or price freely. The addressable market is the load in Kansas and Missouri (plus new large-load hookups). At $20.3B, a 5× would imply a ~$100B two-state electric utility — not plausible.
Reinvestment runway: large and productive within the regulated model — capex ~$2.8B/yr (2.5× depreciation) grows the rate base, which is how utilities compound. But it is funded by debt and equity, not free cash flow (FCF is negative, §5).
Exponential Potential: Low. Own EVRG (if at all) for a dependable dividend and mid-to-high-single-digit total return, not for growth. The data-center demand story is real and is the only reason this scores 3 rather than 2 — but it bends the growth rate, it doesn't transform the business.
Revenue: FY25 $5.92B, +1.7% (FY24 $5.82B; FY23 $5.49B). Low-single-digit top-line — normal for a weather- and rate-driven utility. Q1'26 revenue $1.44B (+5.5% YoY).
Margins: gross 41.5% TTM, EBITDA margin ~46%, operating ~25.4%, net 14.7% TTM. Stable and regulator-shaped.
Earnings: net income $855.6M FY25 (vs $873.5M FY24 — down slightly), EPS $3.71 (diluted $3.66). Q1'26 GAAP EPS $0.64 / adjusted $0.69 (beat the $0.61 estimate).
Quarterly seasonality (not acceleration): utility earnings are seasonal — Q3 (summer cooling) is the big quarter (Q3'25 EPS $2.06) while Q1/Q4 are small. Don't read the quarter-to-quarter swings as a trend.
Cash flow — the blemish: operating CF $2.05B FY25, capex −$2.80B, so FCF is negative (−$752M) — and has been negative every year shown (FY22 −$365M, FY23 −$354M, FY24 −$353M, FY25 −$752M). This is structural for a utility in a heavy build cycle: it out-invests its cash flow and funds the gap with debt and equity. It is not a distress signal, but it does mean the dividend is effectively debt-funded at the margin and leaves no buffer.
Balance sheet: total debt $15.4B, net debt $15.4B, net-debt/EBITDA ~5.8× — high in absolute terms but ordinary for a regulated utility (rate base supports it). Current ratio 0.45 (utilities run low). Interest coverage ~2.4× — adequate, not comfortable, and interest expense is rising ($616M FY25 vs $563M FY24). FMP letter rating B- (DCF score 1/5, reflecting the negative FCF).
6. Valuation — priced in or room?
Evergy trades at ~23× trailing EPS, 6.0× sales, 13.1× EV/EBITDA, with a 3.1% dividend yield (payout ~70%). On forward estimates the P/E compresses to 20.7× (FY26E) → 19.4× (FY27E) → 14.9× (FY30E) — reasonable for a mid-single-digit grower, roughly in line with the regulated-electric peer group. Price-to-book is 2.0×; the FMP Graham number is ~$61.5 (below the current price, i.e. not "cheap" on a strict value screen). The DCF sub-score is a 1/5 — unsurprising, because standard DCFs penalize the persistently negative free cash flow.
Street targets (context): consensus $90.14, high $99, low $82; grades split 7 Buy / 9 Hold / 2 Sell → Hold. Our $91 base-case fair value converges with consensus — there is no meaningful gap between our independent model and the sell-side here, which is exactly what you'd expect for a bounded regulated utility. Net: fairly valued, not a bargain. At the 52-week high the risk/reward skews to "wait for a pullback."
7. Technicals (from the FMP tech block)
Trend:up. $88.13 sits above the 50-DMA ($83.06) and 200-DMA ($78.94), and the 50 is above the 200 (golden-cross posture). MACD +1.25 (positive).
Location — stretched: the stock is exactly at its 52-week high ($88.13), +30.1% off the 52-week low ($67.73), with zero drawdown from peak. Buying at the high offers no cushion.
Momentum — overbought: RSI(14) 73.9 (>70) — a stretched-entry warning. This is the clearest technical caution: momentum is strong but extended.
Relative strength: EVRG +26.9% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% (outperforming the market) but vs QQQ +30.3% (lagging the Nasdaq) — a defensive name that has quietly led the broad market over the past year, likely a rates/rotation beneficiary. +7.1% 3-mo vs SPY +13.7% (recently lagging).
Read: technicals confirm the uptrend but flag an overbought, at-the-high entry. No urgency to buy here; a pullback toward the rising 50-DMA (~$83) would be a lower-risk entry and improve the modest base-case upside.
8. Moat & competitive position
Evergy's "moat" is the strongest kind in one sense and the weakest in another: it is a legal, regulated monopoly. No competitor can string wires to its customers, so its franchise is effectively unassailable — but in exchange, a state utility commission caps its allowed return. There is no pricing power beyond what regulators grant, no share to win, and no product differentiation. The competitive risk is not a rival utility; it is regulatory (rate-case outcomes, allowed ROE) and macro (interest rates on a levered, capital-hungry balance sheet). The genuine growth optionality is large-load/data-center demand, where Evergy's Kansas–Missouri footprint and new LLPS tariff let it add premium-rate customers.
Peer set (FMP-supplied, market cap): CMS Energy $24.0B, Edison International $29.1B, Alliant Energy (LNT) $20.2B, NiSource (NI) $22.9B, Emera $16.4B, Algonquin Power (AQNB) $18.7B, Korea Electric Power (KEP) $16.0B, SABESP (SBS) $19.7B, plus two loosely-related "power" names (Oklo/OKLO $9.1B and Fermi/FRMI — nuclear/SMR developers, not true regulated-utility comps). Against the regulated-electric peers (LNT, CMS, NI, EIX), Evergy is a mid-cap, average-growth, average-multiple operator — neither the cheapest nor the fastest-growing in the group.
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
Capital allocation: the textbook regulated-utility playbook — heavy capex (~$2.8B/yr, 2.5× depreciation) to grow rate base, a steadily rising dividend ($2.75/yr, ~70% payout, ~3.1% yield), and no buybacks (appropriate — utilities issue equity, they don't retire it, to fund growth). The trade-off is negative FCF and rising leverage/interest expense.
Insider activity: a mix of routine director share-unit awards (WILDER C JOHN, Rolph) and modest open-market sales by an officer (Caisley, ~10,787 sh at ~$83.46, 2026-06-16) and a director (Lawrence, several small sales at ~$81–83). These are small, near-the-highs, and look like ordinary diversification — no alarming insider cluster, but no conviction buying either.
Management's own guidance (the earnings-release track — half-weighted, self-interested): from the SEC 8-K (Item 2.02) earnings release dated 2026-05-07, management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS guidance of $4.14–$4.34 (midpoint $4.24) and reaffirmed a long-term adjusted-EPS annual growth target of 6–8%+ through 2030 off the 2026 midpoint, with the expectation that annual EPS growth exceeds 8% beginning in 2028 through 2030. CEO David Campbell tied the acceleration to the large-customer / large-load strategy (a fifth large-customer ESA signed in Q1'26, taking service from 2027 under the premium LLPS tariff). Treat this as management's own book — self-interested and non-GAAP (it excludes convertible-note repurchase losses and clean-energy-investment mark-to-market) — but it is concrete, dated, and directionally consistent with the analyst estimate path.
10. Catalysts & what to watch
Next earnings: 2026-08-06 (Q2'26; Street EPS $0.87, revenue ~$1.37B). Watch weather-normalized demand, large-load ESA progress, and any guidance update.
Rate cases: Kansas and Missouri regulatory outcomes (allowed ROE, rate-base recovery) — the single biggest earnings determinant.
Data-center / large-load ESAs: the pace of new signings and their in-service timing — the only real accelerant to the growth rate; management targets >8% EPS growth from 2028 on the back of this.
Interest rates: as a levered (5.8× net-debt/EBITDA), capex-heavy utility, EVRG is a rate-sensitive bond proxy — falling rates help both earnings and the multiple; higher-for-longer hurts.
Dividend trajectory: continued ~5–7% dividend growth would support the total-return case.
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): an adverse rate-case ruling; EPS guidance cut below the 6% low end; large-load ESAs stalling; interest coverage slipping below ~2×; or the stock pulling back to the low-$70s (which would flip this from Watch toward Buy — Tactical on valuation).
11. Key risks
Regulatory (structural): allowed ROE and rate-base recovery are set by Kansas/Missouri commissions; an unfavorable order directly caps earnings. This is the core risk of the model.
Leverage & rates: net-debt/EBITDA ~5.8×, current ratio 0.45, negative FCF, rising interest expense ($616M FY25). Higher-for-longer rates pressure both the P&L and the valuation.
Capital-intensity / dividend funding: capex exceeds operating cash flow, so growth and the dividend are partly debt/equity funded — dilution and leverage creep are ongoing.
Demand concentration risk (the flip side of the accelerant): if the data-center large-load buildout disappoints, the path to >8% EPS growth from 2028 weakens materially.
Valuation at the high: at the 52-wk high with RSI 74 and only ~3% base-case upside, there is little margin of safety; a growth or rate-case disappointment de-rates the multiple.
No expert corroboration: zero KB coverage means no independent smart-money confirmation of the thesis in either direction.
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Watch. Evergy is a well-run, dependable regulated utility with a clear ~6–8% EPS growth framework, a covered-if-tight 3.1% dividend, and a genuine (if modest) data-center demand accelerant into 2028+. But there is no mispricing to exploit today: the stock trades at the 52-week high, RSI 74, on a full ~20× forward multiple, with our independent fair value ($91) landing right on the Street's ($90.14) — a ~3% base-case upside that does not compensate for the downside in a bad rate case or a rates back-up. There is no expert conviction (0 KB claims) pulling us off the quant read.
Sizing: if owned, this belongs in an income/defensive sleeve at ~1–3%, valued for yield-plus-stability, not growth. It is not a flagship growth position and not a satellite moonshot.
What flips it to Buy — Tactical: a pullback into the low-$70s (bear-case zone), which would restore a real margin of safety on the same fundamentals; or a step-up in large-load ESA momentum that raises the durable growth rate.
Monitoring: re-underwrite on rate-case outcomes and each earnings print; formal re-score after Q2'26 (2026-08-06). This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $88.13.
Single biggest risk: regulatory / rate-case outcomes on a highly levered, capex-heavy balance sheet.
Provenance & disclosures
Traceability:0 KB claims, breadth 0 — there is no expert coverage of EVRG in the Synthos knowledge base. This note is fundamentals- and quant-driven; no claim_ids are cited because none exist. Fabricated conviction is structurally impossible (we cite only real claim-IDs, and here there are none).
Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q1'26) · estimates & prices 2026-07-03 · management guidance from the SEC 8-K earnings release dated 2026-05-07. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP) or management guidance, labeled as estimates.
Management caveat: the 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance ($4.14–$4.34) and 6–8%+ long-term growth target are management's own non-GAAP figures — self-interested and half-weighted by design.
Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").