1/10 · Very Low — a regulated NY utility with ~3% revenue and ~6–7% EPS growth, no acceleration, fixed franchise
Technicals
Uptrend but overbought — $114, −1.3% off 52-wk high, above 50/200-DMA, RSI 74.6, +13% 12-mo (SPY +21%)
Conviction
None — 0 net-bullish voices, 0 traceable claims. Fundamentals/quant only
Position sizing
If owned at all: a defensive income sleeve (1–3%), and only on a pullback below fair value
Next catalyst
2026-08-06 Q2'26 earnings (Street EPS $0.76)
Single biggest risk
Rate-case / regulatory outcomes in New York — the entire return is set by regulators, not the market
One-line thesis. Con Edison is a 200-year-old, exceptionally low-beta (0.27) regulated New York utility that reliably grows earnings ~6–7% and has raised its dividend for 52 straight years — a genuine bond-proxy — but at ~19× earnings and slightly above both our fair value and the Street's own price target, you are paying full price for ~3% top-line growth, so the honest call is Watch, not Buy, until the price offers a margin of safety.
◆ Synthos call — HoldED is a solid business largely reflected at ~$108 — fine to keep, no reason to chase; it gets interesting again below ~$92.
Downside Risk (lower = safer)
4/10 · Moderate
Beta 0.27 & regulated cash flows are defensive — but 3.9× net-debt/EBITDA, negative FCF, and rate-case risk cap the safety.
A rate-base utility with no acceleration and a $42B cap in a fixed franchise — essentially zero multibagger optionality.
⚖ Reverse-DCF cross-checkMarket-implied growth ≈ 12%/yrTo justify today’s $114, earnings would have to compound roughly 12% a year for 10 years (9% discount rate). Analysts forecast ~6%/yr, so the market is pricing in MORE than what the Street expects.What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Buy — CoreOwn it as a foundation — start or add now, size it for years, let dips be gifts.
Buy — TacticalGood price + confirmed trend + a defined exit — buy the setup, not a marriage.
WatchWe want the business, just not at this price/setup — act only when the listed trigger hits.
HoldFine to keep if you own it — no reason to buy more; new money does better elsewhere.
AvoidDon't own it — the problem is the business or the expectations, so a cheaper price won't fix it.
In plain English
Con Edison is the company that keeps the lights on, the gas flowing, and the steam running in New York City and nearby suburbs. It is a regulated utility: a government commission decides how much it can charge, which makes its profits slow, steady, and very predictable. It has paid — and raised — its dividend every year for 52 years in a row, so people mostly own it for the ~3% dividend and the safety, not for growth.
Is the stock cheap or expensive right now? Slightly expensive. It trades at about $114, and both our own math and the average Wall Street analyst put fair value a touch lower (around $108). So you'd be paying a small premium today. Our verdict is Watch — a fine, sturdy business, but wait for a dip before buying.
Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
Downside Risk 4/10 (fairly low, but not zero). The stock barely moves with the market and its cash flows are regulated and reliable — but it carries a lot of debt and spends more than it earns on building the grid, so it's not risk-free.
Growth Quality 3/10 (below average). It grows, just slowly. A regulated utility is not built to grow fast.
Exponential Potential 1/10 (basically none). This will never double quickly. It's the opposite of a rocket ship — it's a savings-bond-like utility.
The one big worry: New York regulators decide the company's allowed profit every few years. A tough ruling, a rejected rate increase, or rising interest rates (which hurt bond-like stocks) could all sting the return.
Solid = price · dashed = 50-day average · dotted = 200-day average · amber = 52-week high/low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Blue crossing above amber (bars flip green) = momentum turning up; below (bars red) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLU (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = ED · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLU (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
Price$113.99
Market cap$42B
P/E trailing5×
P/E FY26E / FY27E19× / 18×
EV / Sales4.0×
EV / EBITDA9.9×
Gross margin65.0%
Net margin12.5%
Dividend yield3.05%
Beta0.272
52-wk range$95 – $115
RSI(14)75
50 / 200-DMA$108 / $105
12-mo return+13% (SPY +21%)
Street target$108 ($97–$118)
Analyst grades2 Buy · 18 Hold · 7 Sell
FMP ratingB+
Next earnings2026-08-05
What the experts actually said 0 traceable claims on ED · showing the highest-conviction voices
Every claim reconciles to a real claim_id in the Synthos knowledge base — this is the evidence the verdict is built on, not vibes. Management (the company itself) is shown but half-weighted; one cautionary voice is included on purpose.
1. What it is
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED) is one of the oldest investor-owned utilities in the United States (founded 1823). Through its principal subsidiary CECONY (Consolidated Edison Company of New York) and Orange & Rockland (O&R), it delivers:
Electricity to ~3.5 million customers in New York City and Westchester (plus ~300,000 in southeastern NY / northern NJ).
Natural gas to ~1.1 million customers in Manhattan, the Bronx, parts of Queens, and Westchester.
Steam to ~1,555 customers in Manhattan (a genuinely unusual district-steam franchise).
This is a rate-regulated business: a state commission sets the allowed return on the company's invested "rate base," which is the core driver of earnings. Fiscal year ends December 31.
Electricity is the overwhelming driver; the tiny non-utility line reflects Con Ed's earlier exit from its clean-energy development businesses, leaving an almost-pure regulated pure-play.
Geography: FMP provides no geographic segmentation (seg_geo empty) — but functionally the entire franchise is New York State, one of the most demanding regulatory and highest-cost service territories in the country. That concentration is both a moat (a protected monopoly franchise) and the single largest risk (one regulator sets the whole return).
2. The expert thesis — why the panel is bullish (traceable)
There is no expert coverage of ED in the Synthos knowledge base.total_claims = 0, net_bullish_voices = 0, and the top claim list is empty. None of the investor-panel voices Synthos tracks have said anything traceable about Consolidated Edison.
That is an honest and common outcome for a low-beta regulated utility: it is not the kind of name that shows up in high-conviction investor podcasts. We therefore make no expert-conviction claim, cite no claim_ids (there are none to cite), and drive this verdict entirely from fundamentals, valuation, and quant. Any bullishness you read below is ours, derived from the numbers — not borrowed from a panel we do not have.
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):
Score
0–10
The read
Downside Risk(lower = safer)
4 · Low-Moderate
Beta 0.27 (lowest-decile) and regulated, predictable cash flows are genuinely defensive; offset by 3.9× net-debt/EBITDA, structurally negative free cash flow (heavy capex), interest coverage of only ~1.4×, and rate-case/rate-rise sensitivity. Safe for a stock, but leveraged and rate-sensitive.
Growth Quality
3 · Below Average
~3% forward revenue CAGR and ~6–7% EPS CAGR (FY25→FY30E), ROE ~9%, ROIC ~3% (below cost of capital in a normal read), flat-to-slow margin profile. Reliable, not high-quality-compounding.
Exponential Potential
1 · Very Low
A $42B regulated monopoly in a fixed NY franchise. No acceleration (2nd derivative ≈ 0), no TAM expansion, no optionality. This is the definitional anti-exponential.
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We deliberately do not attach probabilities: the base case is by definition the expected path, so a weighted blend would just restate it with false precision. The cases bound the range; the scores above summarize them.
Case
Key assumptions
Fair value
Bull
Constructive multi-year rate plans; the 8.8% regulated rate-base CAGR (mgmt) flows through; rates fall, so the bond-proxy re-rates. FY27E EPS ~$6.48 earns a ~19× multiple (income-scarcity premium).
~$124 (+9%)
Base(our anchor)
Estimates roughly hit — FY27E EPS $6.48; a steady ~6–7% EPS grower with 3% yield holds a ~16.5× multiple (roughly its own history).
~$108 (−5%)
Bear
A harsh rate-case outcome, rising long rates de-rate the bond-proxy, and negative FCF forces more equity issuance (dilution). FY27E EPS ~$6.20; multiple compresses to ~14×.
~$88 (−23%)
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$108 (−5%), with the full $88–$124 span as the honest range. Our base sits essentially on top of the Street's $107.75 consensus — for a regulated utility whose earnings are set by a formula, the Street and a disciplined DCF converge, and both say the stock is modestly above fair value today. This is a tracked call; the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders (durable high returns on capital) from exponentials (accelerating multi-baggers-from-here). ED is neither — it is a low-growth, regulated income vehicle:
Acceleration (the 2nd derivative) is roughly flat: EPS growth is a smooth ~6–7% each year with no inflection — the estimate curve is a straight line, which is exactly what a rate-base utility should produce.
Room to run: none in the exponential sense. The franchise is a fixed, regulated NY territory; there is no TAM to conquer. Growth comes only from rate-base investment the regulator allows.
Reinvestment runway: paradoxically large in dollars (multi-billion annual capex into the grid, electrification-driven load growth) — but it is regulated-return reinvestment (~9% ROE), not high-ROIC compounding, and it is funded partly by new debt and equity.
Exponential Potential: Very Low (1/10). Own ED — if at all — for the ~3% dividend, the 52-year raise streak, and portfolio ballast. Do not own it for capital appreciation beyond low-single-digit-plus-dividend total returns.
Revenue: FY25 $16.92B, +10.9% (FY24 $15.26B, +4.2% on FY23 $14.65B). The FY25 bump partly reflects commodity pass-through (oil & gas purchased), not underlying growth — utility revenue is a noisy top line.
Earnings: GAAP net income $2.02B FY25 (EPS $5.66); FY24 $1.82B ($5.26). Note FY23's $7.24 EPS was inflated by one-time gains (clean-energy business sale). Q1'26 EPS $2.55 GAAP / $2.18 adjusted (management's number).
Returns on capital: ROE ~8.8% TTM, ROIC ~3.2%, ROA ~2.9%. These are low — the regulated model produces reliable but modest returns.
Cash flow (the honest weak spot): operating CF ~$4.8B FY25, capex ~−$4.76B, leaving free cash flow of only ~$36M — and FCF was negative in FY22–FY24 (−$0.2B, −$2.3B, −$1.2B). ED does not self-fund its growth capex plus dividend; it funds the gap with debt and equity issuance (a $776M equity forward in Feb 2026, per the earnings release). This is normal for a growth-capex utility but is a real dilution/leverage watch-item.
Balance sheet: total debt $28.8B, net debt $27.1B, net-debt/EBITDA ~3.9× — investment-grade but meaningfully levered; interest coverage a thin ~1.4×. Management notes no long-term holding-company debt (debt sits at the operating utilities).
6. Valuation — priced in or room?
At 19.1× trailing EPS, 4.0× EV/sales, 9.9× EV/EBITDA, ED is priced roughly in line with — to a touch above — its own history and the regulated-utility peer group. The forward P/E path is 18.7× (FY26E) → 17.6× (FY27E) → 14.6× (FY30E), so the multiple compresses gently as EPS grinds higher, but there is no cheap entry here. Key reads:
PEG is unattractive: trailing PEG ~2.0× and forward PEG ~3.1× (FMP) — you are paying a growth-stock PEG for a no-growth utility, which only makes sense if the ~3% dividend + defensiveness is the point.
Dividend: yield ~3.05%, payout ratio ~55% of earnings — well-covered on earnings, though not covered by free cash flow (see §5). The 52-year raise streak is the real product.
Price-to-book 1.6×, price/fair-value (FMP) 1.6× — a premium to book that regulated utilities typically hold.
Street targets (context): consensus $107.75, high $118, low $97. The stock ($114) trades above the average analyst target, and the grade distribution (0 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 18 Hold, 7 Sell) is a clear Hold/Sell tilt — the Street is not chasing it here.
Our ~$108 base-case fair value lands right on consensus. Not cheap; modestly above fair value. A quality bond-proxy at a slightly full price — hence Watch.
7. Technicals (from the tech block)
Trend:up. $114 sits above the 50-DMA ($107.84) and 200-DMA ($105.00), and the 50 is above the 200 (golden-cross posture). MACD +1.39 (positive).
Location: just −1.3% off the 52-week high ($115.46), +19% off the 52-week low ($95.41) — a defensive name near highs, minimal drawdown (max −1.3% from peak).
Momentum: RSI(14) 74.6 — overbought (>70). This is a genuine stretched-entry warning: buying here means buying into a short-term overbought condition near the 52-week high.
Relative strength: ED +13.1% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% and QQQ +30.3% — it has lagged the market over 12 months (as low-beta defensives typically do in an up-tape), though it outran SPY over the last 3 months (+7.0% vs... SPY +13.7%; actually lagged 3-mo too). Net: a defensive laggard, not a leader.
Read: technicals say wait. Overbought RSI near the 52-week high argues against initiating; a pullback toward the rising 50-DMA (~$108, which is also our fair value) would be a lower-risk entry.
8. Moat & competitive position
ED's moat is a regulated monopoly franchise: no competitor can string a second set of wires under Manhattan, and the barriers (regulatory, capital, right-of-way) are effectively absolute within its territory. Management touts nation-leading electric reliability (best-in-class SAIFI/SAIDI vs proxy peers) and a 200-year operating track record. The flip side of the monopoly is that the regulator — not competition or the market — sets the allowed return, so the "moat" caps the upside as much as it protects the downside.
Peer set (regulated electric/multi-utilities, market cap): Entergy (ETR) $52.7B, PSEG (PEG) $40.7B, WEC Energy $38.7B, PG&E (PCG) $37.5B, DTE $32.0B, Ameren (AEE) $31.8B, Fortis (FTS) $29.5B, FirstEnergy (FE) $28.1B, Eversource (ES) $28.0B, CMS Energy $24.0B. ED sits among the larger regulated names; it trades at a similar-to-slightly-premium multiple, justified by its low beta, reliability record, and dividend-aristocrat status rather than by superior growth.
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
Capital allocation: disciplined and utility-standard — heavy regulated capex into the grid (electrification-driven load growth), a well-defended dividend (52nd straight annual increase, +4.4% latest), and equity/debt issuance to fund the capex-plus-dividend gap. No buyback of note; a $776M equity forward (Feb 2026) is a mild dilution flag.
Insider activity: the recent Form-4 flow (insider) is almost entirely director stock awards (routine comp), plus a small officer purchase (VP & Controller, ~$107, June 2026) and a director award. No cluster of discretionary insider selling — a clean, unremarkable read.
Management's own guidance (half-weighted — their self-interested words): the SEC 8-K earnings release (1Q'26, filed 2026-05-07) is a real earnings presentation and does contain dated forward guidance. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20 (non-GAAP), framed the investment thesis as "durable, steady, and reliable," and cited an 8.8% regulated-investment-base five-year CAGR, three years of rate certainty for CECONY electric & gas, electrification-driven load growth (20–25% higher electric demand from new buildings; 9–13 new substations planned 2026–2034), and no long-term holding-company debt. Treat this as management talking its own book (half-weight): the guidance is credible and consistent with the regulated model, but it is, by design, the optimistic framing.
10. Catalysts & what to watch
Next earnings: 2026-08-06 (Q2'26; Street EPS $0.76, revenue ~$3.46B — note Q2 is a seasonally low quarter for a NY utility). Watch for reaffirmation of the $6.00–$6.20 FY26 adjusted-EPS guide.
Rate cases: the single biggest earnings driver — outcomes on allowed ROE and rate-base recovery for CECONY and O&R. A constructive/adverse ruling moves the whole thesis.
Interest rates: as a bond-proxy, ED re-rates inversely to long rates. Falling rates = tailwind; rising rates = de-rating.
Capex / FCF gap: whether the electrification build stays on plan and how much new equity is required to fund it (dilution watch).
Dividend: continuation of the 52-year raise streak (the reason most holders own it).
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): an unfavorable rate-case decision; a dividend-growth pause (would break the core reason to own it); net-debt/EBITDA drifting above ~4.5×; or a sustained spike in long rates that de-rates the whole sector.
11. Key risks
Regulatory / rate-case (structural, #1): a New York commission sets the allowed return on the entire franchise. An adverse rate plan directly caps earnings — the return is politically and administratively determined, not market-determined.
Leverage & negative free cash flow: 3.9× net-debt/EBITDA, ~1.4× interest coverage, and FCF that has been near-zero-to-negative for years mean the growth-plus-dividend is partly debt/equity funded — a dilution and refinancing risk if rates stay high.
Interest-rate sensitivity: as a low-beta bond-proxy, ED is vulnerable to rising long rates even if operations are flawless.
Valuation: trading above both our fair value and the Street's average target, with a Hold/Sell analyst tilt — limited margin of safety at $114.
Single-territory concentration: the entire business is New York State — one regulator, one economy, one weather/climate exposure (storm-hardening costs, climate-driven capex).
No expert corroboration: unlike our conviction names, there is zero independent panel coverage to cross-check the thesis — this call rests entirely on the quant/fundamentals.
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Watch. Consolidated Edison is exactly what it appears to be: a rock-steady, ultra-low-beta (0.27) regulated NY utility with a 52-year dividend-raise streak and highly predictable ~6–7% EPS growth. It is a legitimate defensive income holding — but at $114 it trades above our ~$108 fair value and above the Street's $107.75 target, with an overbought RSI (74.6) near its 52-week high and a Hold/Sell-tilted analyst panel. There is no margin of safety and no expert conviction to lean on, so the honest verdict is Watch, not Buy.
Sizing: if held, a defensive income sleeve, ~1–3% — ballast, not a growth position. We would want a pullback below ~$108 (toward the rising 50-DMA, which coincides with fair value) before initiating.
Monitoring: re-underwrite on rate-case outcomes and each earnings print; watch the FCF/equity-issuance gap and the dividend-growth streak. This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $113.99.
Single biggest risk: New York rate-case / regulatory outcomes — the regulator, not the market, sets this company's return.
Provenance & disclosures
Traceability:0 KB claims, breadth 0 — there is no expert coverage of ED in the Synthos knowledge base, so no claim_ids are cited (none exist). This verdict is explicitly fundamentals- and quant-driven; fabricated conviction is structurally impossible (and there was none to borrow).
Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q1'26) · estimates & prices 2026-07-02/03 · management guidance from the SEC 8-K earnings release filed 2026-05-07. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP) or management guidance, labeled as estimates.
Management caveat: the $6.00–$6.20 FY26 adjusted-EPS guide and the 8.8% rate-base CAGR are management's own words, half-weighted by design.
Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").