Every constituent, scored 0–10 on Downside Risk (lower = safer), Growth Quality, and Exponential Potential, with price, YTD, a base-case fair value (and its bear–bull range), and a one-line take. Click a ticker for the full interactive report. ← research hub
◆ Accumulation band for XLY itself: roughly $109–$117 — the index is richly priced, so dollar-cost-averaging on dips toward the 50/200-day average (near $118) beats chasing new highs.
XLY (market-cap-weighted) vs RSPD (equal-weight), both rebased to 100 a year ago. When the cap-weighted line pulls ahead, the biggest names are carrying the index. Past year: XLY +6% vs RSPD +3% — a +4 pt spread, so a few mega-caps are carrying the index — concentration is ELEVATED.
How many of the 9 names are actually participating — a check on whether the index is broad-based or driven by a handful of mega-caps. Right now breadth looks mixed.
| Name | Verdict | Risk | Growth | Exp | Price | YTD | Fair value (range) | Entry zone | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | Buy — Core | 3 | 7 | 3 | $30 | -23.3% | $41 ($27–$52) | $27–$30 | Copart is a genuinely elite, net-cash, 33%-net-margin duopolist in online salvage auctions whose stock has been cut nearly in half (−40% over 12 months) as top-line growth collapsed from double digits to roughly flat — the de-rating has finally made a wonderful business reasonably priced, so this… |
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | Buy — Core | 4 | 7 | 3 | — | +1.0% | $125 ($82–$171) | — | Deckers is a genuinely excellent, net-cash, high-return footwear house (UGG + HOKA) trading at a reasonable ~15× earnings — but growth has decelerated hard (revenue +9.8%, EPS +11% in FY26 vs +16%/+30% the year before), the stock has gone nowhere for a year, and with zero expert coverage and a… |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 4 | 8 | 6 | $243 | +5.1% | $300 ($175–$375) | $233–$243 | Amazon is three high-quality compounders — AWS ($129B, the profit engine), Advertising ($69B and highest-margin), and a third-party-marketplace-plus-Prime retail flywheel — stapled inside a "Specialty Retail" label; FY25 revenue grew 12% to $717B and net income grew 31% to $78B, yet free cash flow… |
| TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 5 | 7 | 4 | — | +12.9% | $165 ($110–$205) | — | Tapestry has quietly become one of retail's best turnarounds — Coach is re-accelerating (+31% brand revenue in Q3 FY26), margins are expanding, free cash flow is ~$1.1B, and management just raised guidance again — yet the stock trades at only ~20× forward EPS. The catch: it's a cyclical, beta-1.45… |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | +6.2% | $335 ($205–$430) | — | RCL is the best-run operator in a recovered cruise duopoly — record WAVE-season demand, 109% load factors, rising net yields, EBITDA margin near 39%, ROE 46%, and a de-levering balance sheet — trading at a genuinely modest ~18× trailing / ~15× FY27E with a PEG near 0.5. The catch is what it *is*: a… |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | -5.2% | $300 ($180–$385) | — | Expedia is a cheap, net-cash, cash-gushing travel platform (FY25 revenue $14.7B, FCF $3.1B, ~10% FCF yield) shrinking its share count aggressively — but it is a cyclical middleman whose entire business model faces a live, credible secular threat from AI booking agents, so we own it tactically for… |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | Watch | 4 | 7 | 3 | $185 | -13.8% | $218 ($120–$285) | — | The world's dominant asset-light online-travel aggregator — 68% ROIC, ~$9B annual free cash flow, relentless buybacks — has sold off ~20% off its high on a genuine (not fabricated) fear that AI agents disintermediate it; at 17.7× forward earnings that pessimism is partly priced, so this is a Buy… |
| MCD McDonald's Corporation | Watch | 4 | 6 | 2 | — | -8.2% | $300 ($225–$375) | — | McDonald's is one of the best-run franchises on earth — 95% franchised, 57% gross / 46% EBIT margins, ~17% ROIC, a fortress moat — but it is a mature ~5%-grower priced at 23× earnings with a ~3.4× PEG, sitting in a multi-quarter downtrend while management itself calls the consumer environment "not… |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 2 | $90 | -1.1% | $94 ($66–$112) | — | O'Reilly is one of the best-run retailers in America — ~34% returns on invested capital, a countercyclical demand base, and a two-decade buyback machine — but at 29× trailing earnings for ~5% revenue and ~9% EPS growth, the price already reflects the quality, and the stock has *lagged* the market… |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -23.7% | $540 ($380–$660) | — | Ulta is the largest US specialty-beauty retailer — 45% ROE, 24% ROIC, no meaningful net leverage, and a 40M+ member loyalty program — now trading at ~16× forward earnings and ~11.6× EV/EBITDA after a 35% drawdown; the setup is a good business on sale, but growth has slowed to mid-single digits and… |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | -6.8% | $3690 ($2970–$4255) | — | AutoZone is one of the best-run compounders in retail — 52% gross margin, elite returns on capital, a countercyclical "keep the old car running" business, and a two-decade buyback machine that shrank the share count by ~30% in five years — but the stock is in a downtrend, the multiple is no longer… |
| TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 7 | 3 | — | +0.3% | $138 ($96–$163) | — | TJX is one of the best-run retailers on earth — FY27 (Jan-year) is tracking record comps, a ~12% pretax margin and 29% Q1 EPS growth on an unbreakable off-price model — but at ~30× earnings for ~9% forward EPS growth the stock already prices the excellence, so the operator earns an A while the… |
| ROL Rollins, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 7 | 3 | — | -27.7% | $41 ($29–$52) | — | Rollins is one of the highest-quality recurring-revenue compounders in the S&P 500 — Orkin pest control, 2.8M customers, 37% ROE, light debt, ~90% U.S. — but even after a 34% drawdown it trades at ~35× forward earnings for ~10% EPS growth, so the price still has to catch down to the (excellent)… |
| HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 3 | — | +17.7% | $340 ($250–$430) | — | Hilton is a genuinely elite, capital-light hotel-franchising machine — ~45% adjusted-EBITDA margins, 6–7% unit growth, and a buyback engine that turns high-single-digit fee growth into ~16% EPS growth — but at 37× forward earnings the market already knows it, and with RevPAR decelerating to 2–3%… |
| CVNA Carvana Co. | Hold | 8 | 7 | 6 | — | -18.7% | $72 ($34–$118) | — | Carvana is a genuine, well-executed turnaround — FY25 revenue +49% to $20.3B, Adjusted EBITDA margin now double-digit, net debt gone — but after a ~10× run off the 2022–23 bankruptcy scare the stock is a 3.4-beta cyclical priced for years of flawless 40% unit growth, so our honest base case sits… |
| ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 6 | 2 | $213 | +18.5% | $215 ($150–$250) | — | Ross is a genuinely elite off-price operator — 38% ROE, 19% ROIC, a fortress balance sheet, and a moat built on treasure-hunt buying — but at 30× trailing earnings on ~7% forward EPS growth the stock already prices in the quality, so we rate it Watch and would want a better entry (or faster growth)… |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +44.3% | $820 ($610–$1010) | — | Casey's is one of the best-run businesses in American retail — a small-town convenience/fuel roll-up that just closed a three-year plan with record FY26 results (revenue $17.6B, EPS $19.16 +31%, EBITDA ~$1.48B, 27th straight dividend raise) — but the stock now trades at ~42× trailing / ~38× forward… |
| RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +12.6% | $400 ($280–$515) | — | Ralph Lauren has executed a genuinely impressive brand-elevation turnaround — FY26 revenue crossed $8B for the first time (+15%), gross margin ~70%, ROE ~35%, net-debt/EBITDA 0.7× — but management itself now guides to only mid-single-digit revenue growth, and after a +46% year the stock already… |
| YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +8.9% | $168 ($128–$205) | — | Yum! is a genuinely good, capital-light global franchise machine — Taco Bell is firing (Q1'26 same-store +8%), KFC is expanding units fast, and 94% of the system is franchised so cash converts cleanly — but at ~26× trailing earnings for a high-single-digit-topline, 3.9×-levered business with a… |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | $149 | +9.7% | $158 ($94–$210) | — | Airbnb is a genuinely elite, net-cash, high-margin marketplace (FY25 revenue $12.24B, 83% gross margin, $4.65B free cash flow, 31% ROE) — but top-line growth has cooled to ~10%, the stock trades at ~36× trailing right *at* its 52-week high, and the freshest expert conviction in our KB is a… |
| HAS Hasbro, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | -2.3% | $96 ($58–$128) | — | Underneath a headline GAAP loss (a one-time 2025 goodwill write-down) sits a leaner, cash-generative Hasbro throwing off ~$830M of free cash flow, trading at ~13× forward earnings, with one truly excellent growth engine — Magic: The Gathering — doing the heavy lifting; it's cheap enough and… |
| MAR Marriott International, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | $373 | +20.2% | $360 ($265–$450) | — | Marriott is a genuinely excellent asset-light hotel-franchise machine — high returns on capital, a durable brand-and-loyalty moat, and relentless buybacks — but the top line barely grows (FY25 revenue +4.3%, ~2%/yr forward), the earnings growth is engineered by margin and share count, and at 39×… |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | +27.4% | $210 ($150–$275) | — | Williams-Sonoma is one of the best-run specialty retailers in America — 46% gross margin, 53% ROE, a net-cash-like balance sheet and a real omni-channel moat — but it is a mature, cyclical business whose revenue has been essentially flat for four years ($7.75B FY23 → $7.81B FY25), so at 25×… |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | Hold | 7 | 6 | 3 | — | -8.6% | $33 ($18–$44) | — | Carnival is a genuinely cheap (12× EPS, 8.7× EV/EBITDA), record-demand cruise operator methodically paying down a mountain of COVID-era debt — the base-case return comes from deleveraging and multiple normalization, not from fast growth, and the whole call is hostage to the consumer cycle because a… |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +11.0% | $210 ($165–$260) | — | Darden is a best-in-class restaurant operator (Olive Garden, LongHorn, Ruth's Chris) throwing off ~$1.1B of free cash flow and a ~3% dividend, but it grows revenue only mid-single-digits, trades roughly in line with fair value, and has zero expert coverage in our KB — a Watch: own it for defensive… |
| NVR NVR, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | -7.4% | $6900 ($4900–$8800) | — | NVR runs the best-designed business model in US homebuilding — asset-light land options, pre-sold homes, no land-development risk, 33% ROE and a net-cash balance sheet — but the cycle has turned against it: FY25 revenue fell 2%, net income fell 20%, Q1'26 EPS fell 29%, and gross margin is… |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +31.8% | $118 ($82–$150) | — | eBay is a cash-generative, cheaply-valued marketplace that has genuinely re-accelerated (Q1'26 GMV +18%, revenue +19%) on Focus Categories, collectibles and advertising — but it is a mature $51B business with a mid-single-digit structural growth ceiling and a rich beta, so the honest call is Watch… |
| HD The Home Depot, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | +4.0% | $360 ($270–$445) | — | Home Depot is a fortress retailer with elite returns on capital and a wide moat, but it is a mature, cyclical, low-single-digit grower trading at ~25× earnings — you are paying a quality-and-cycle-recovery premium, so the honest call is Watch until either the price comes in or the housing cycle… |
| LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | -5.7% | $245 ($185–$295) | — | Lowe's is a well-run, cash-generative #2 home-improvement retailer trading at a reasonable ~19× earnings, but revenue is barely growing (~5% forward) in a mature, housing-cycle-dependent US market — a solid dividend compounder to own on weakness, not a name with the growth or the expert conviction… |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +15.5% | $235 ($160–$275) | — | PKG is a genuinely well-run, low-cost containerboard producer that just bought Greif's containerboard business (~$1.8B) to add scale — but it is a mature, cyclical commodity company trading at ~29× trailing earnings, roughly at our fair value, with an overbought chart and no expert conviction… |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | -4.4% | $38 ($26–$52) | — | Chipotle is a genuinely elite restaurant operator whose *engine has downshifted* — FY25 revenue grew only +5.4% to $11.9B, Q1'26 comps were +0.5% with operating margin falling to 12.9% (from 16.7%) and EPS *declining* year-over-year — yet the stock still trades at ~32× trailing; after a −48%… |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 2 | — | -25.2% | $340 ($235–$445) | — | Domino's is a genuinely excellent, high-return franchise business trading ~36% below its peak after a hard 12 months — but the growth engine has cooled to low-single-digit same-store sales, leverage is heavy (net-debt/EBITDA ~4.9×), and forward growth is only ~5% revenue / ~10% EPS. At ~18×… |
| LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | -27.8% | $58 ($34–$74) | — | LVS is a high-quality integrated-resort operator trading at a genuinely undemanding valuation (9× EV/EBITDA, 17× earnings) near its 52-week low, aggressively shrinking its share count — but it is a leveraged, deeply cyclical bet on Macao and Singapore with no secular growth engine and no expert… |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | Hold | 6 | 5 | 4 | — | +18.8% | $50 ($30–$60) | — | Smurfit Westrock is the year-old merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock — a $31B-revenue global packaging giant whose reported earnings are still depressed by merger accounting and a soft cycle (FY25 net income just $699M, 0.8% Q1'26 net margin), so the entire bull case is management delivering… |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings L | Hold | 7 | 5 | 3 | — | -11.4% | $22 ($14–$29) | — | Norwegian is the smallest and most heavily levered of the three big cruise operators — a recovered, cash-generating-at-the-operating-line business trading at a genuinely low ~10× forward earnings, but carrying ~$14.4B of net debt (6.3× EBITDA) into a cyclical, discretionary-spend industry; the… |
| PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | +14.0% | $134 ($95–$185) | — | A best-in-class, low-debt homebuilder trading at a single-digit-teens P/E and buying back ~5% of its stock a year — but it is a deeply cyclical business at the *wrong* end of the earnings cycle (FY25 EPS fell to $11.21 from $14.82, margins are compressing, and FY26 estimates call for another ~11%… |
| BALL Ball Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +19.7% | $63 ($47–$81) | — | Ball is a well-run, near-duopoly aluminum-beverage-can maker throwing off ~$800M+ of free cash flow it funnels into buybacks — a legitimate low-growth cash-cow — but at $63 the stock already discounts management's "10%+ EPS growth" plan, the shares are technically overbought (RSI ~88), and there is… |
| DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 4 | 3 | — | +10.1% | $155 ($95–$182) | — | D.R. Horton is the best-run, largest-scale, lowest-cost homebuilder in America, trading at a genuinely modest 14.8× earnings with a fortress-lite balance sheet and heavy buybacks — but it is a deep cyclical in a demand downturn where earnings are still *falling* (FY25 EPS $11.57, FY26E $10.57), so… |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +7.8% | $143 ($100–$176) | — | GPC is a ~$24B-revenue, 98-year-old auto- and industrial-parts distributor and Dividend King (69 straight annual raises) that is durable and cheap-ish (~17× forward earnings, 3.2% yield) but barely growing — a fine income holding, not a wealth-compounder — and after a +26% three-month run into an… |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | -36.5% | $34 ($25–$42) | — | A financially sturdy, low-beta rural-lifestyle retailer that has been cut nearly in half from its peak — the de-rate is real and the ~3% dividend is well-covered, but with comps running roughly flat, EPS growing only ~7%, and the stock in a clear downtrend, this is a *prove-it* name to Watch, not… |
| AMCR Amcor plc | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | +7.9% | $48 ($34–$62) | — | Amcor is a newly-doubled global packaging giant (the April-2025 Berry Global merger) that trades cheap (~11× forward earnings) and pays a ~5.75% dividend, but the "growth" you see in the headlines is *acquired*, not organic — volumes are actually down ~1.5% YoY — and the company is carrying ~4.9×… |
| APTV Aptiv PLC | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | -22.6% | $62 ($38–$88) | — | Aptiv just spun off its largest, steadiest business (Electrical Distribution Systems → "Versigent," April 1 2026), leaving a smaller (~$13B revenue), higher-margin, but more concentrated "New Aptiv" that trades at ~10× earnings and 8.6× EV/EBITDA — statistically cheap, but it is a leveraged… |
| GM General Motors Company | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | -6.5% | $82 ($52–$112) | — | GM is genuinely cheap — ~0.4× sales, ~5.9× forward adjusted earnings, an 18% free-cash-flow yield, and a management buying back ~9% of the float a year — but "cheap" is the whole thesis: revenue is flat-to-declining, GAAP earnings just took a multi-billion-dollar EV/restructuring hit, tariffs cost… |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | -43.0% | $138 ($86–$216) | — | Lululemon is a high-quality, net-cash, cash-generative apparel brand trading at a distressed-looking 9× earnings — but it is cheap *because* the core North America business is shrinking (Americas comps −5%), management just cut full-year guidance to flat-to-down revenue and a lower EPS, and the one… |
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | $104 | +23.8% | $100 ($72–$132) | — | Starbucks is a great brand mid-restructuring: revenue is flat-to-slightly-up, margins and EPS have collapsed (FY25 EPS $1.63 vs $3.31 in FY24) under CEO Brian Niccol's costly "Back to Starbucks" turnaround, yet the stock trades at ~79× trailing and pays a dividend its free cash flow no longer… |
| IP International Paper Company | Hold | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | -1.5% | $40 ($26–$55) | — | International Paper is a 125-year-old containerboard giant in the middle of a self-inflicted, high-stakes reset — a new CEO's "80/20" cost program, the DS Smith acquisition, the sale of its cellulose-fibers arm, and a planned split of North America from EMEA — so the FY25 GAAP loss (−$3.5B, driven… |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | Hold | 7 | 4 | 5 | — | +29.1% | $48 ($30–$66) | — | MGM is a cash-generative but capital-intensive casino operator that looks statistically cheap (0.68× sales, 7× free cash flow, ~14% FCF yield, shrinking share count) yet carries real cyclicality, heavy lease-adjusted leverage, and a lumpy GAAP earnings line — the bull case is a small-cap re-rating… |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | Hold | 7 | 4 | 4 | — | -20.3% | $108 ($62–$150) | — | Wynn is a genuinely great luxury-casino operator trading cheaply near its 52-week low, but the equity is a leveraged bet — 6× net-debt/EBITDA and negative book value mean small swings in Macau or Las Vegas EBITDA move the stock hard, so it is a Watch until the 2027 UAE mega-resort de-risks the… |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Hold | 9 | 4 | 7 | $393 | -12.5% | $360 ($150–$620) | — | Tesla is two companies trading as one price: a shrinking, margin-compressed car maker (FY25 revenue −2.9% to $94.8B, net income down 47% to $3.8B, ROE ~5%) and a call option on autonomy and humanoid robots that the smartest voices in our panel love — and the entire $1.48T market cap rests on the… |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | Hold | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | +16.5% | $80 ($55–$100) | — | Best Buy is a well-run, cash-generative, cheap ($77.99, ~12× forward, 4.9% yield) but structurally *shrinking* big-box electronics retailer — revenue has fallen from $51.8B (FY22) to $41.7B (FY26) — so the case is a value/income hold, not growth; with no net-bullish expert coverage and a real… |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | Hold | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | -14.2% | $92 ($55–$118) | — | Lennar is a well-run, newly asset-light #2 US homebuilder trading around book value in the deepest margin trough in years (gross margin on home sales ~15.6%, down from ~21% at the peak) — the balance sheet and cheapness cap the downside, but with earnings *falling* and mortgage rates still gating… |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | -30.8% | $46 ($30–$68) | — | NIKE is a genuinely iconic, cash-generative, cheaply-priced global brand in the middle of a real operational stumble — FY26 revenue was flat ($46.4B), EPS fell to $2.10 (from $3.83 two years ago, and FY26's number was *flattered* by a one-time $0.52 tariff-recovery benefit), and the stock is down… |
| F Ford Motor Company | Hold | 7 | 3 | 2 | — | +1.8% | $14 ($8–$20) | — | Ford is *statistically* cheap — ~7–8× forward earnings, 0.28× sales, a ~4.5% dividend, and $12.5B of FY25 free cash flow — but it is a mature, deeply cyclical, thin-margin manufacturer that just posted an FY25 net loss of $8.2B (a big Q4 charge), still loses ~$4B/yr in its EV segment, and carries a… |