Synthos Research · Macro & the big picture · all questions · the Conviction Board
Will inflation go back to 2%?
The experts are split (51/100, 49% dissent), but the stronger-conviction voices argue 2% requires deficits below 4% of GDP — which politics won't deliver — making ~3% the new floor. Watch core PCE under 2.5% with growth intact as the falsifier.
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 51/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.