Synthos Research · Macro & the big picture · all questions · the Conviction Board
Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?
Split — 48/100. The sharper argument our KB surfaces: it matters less than you think. Treasury issuance now moves markets more than 25bp of Fed policy, and the plumbing (reserves, RRP) will force the Fed's hand either way.
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 48/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.