Synthos Research · Portfolio & strategy · all questions · the Conviction Board
What's the most contrarian trade right now?
By our own numbers, two: long duration (bonds at 28/100 — everyone hates them; a recession makes the crowd wrong) and fading the chip trade (real science, 98th-percentile crowding, Gap -13). Contrarian isn't a strategy — but knowing where consensus is fully priced is.
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 28/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.