What are the biggest risks to markets right now?

We publish our falsifiers, so this one's precise: (1) two-plus hyperscalers cutting AI capex in consecutive quarters — breaks the buildout calls; (2) jobless claims through 300k with HY spreads over 450bp — recession flips the board to duration; (3) a core-CPI reacceleration above 4% — forces the Fed against the liquidity call. Each is pre-committed on the relevant prediction page.