Synthos Research · Macro & the big picture · all questions · the Conviction Board
What is fiscal dominance?
Fiscal dominance is when government debt gets so large that monetary policy stops serving inflation control and starts serving the Treasury's funding needs. Our experts put sustainability conviction at 25/100 — meaning they believe we're already in it. It's the single assumption underneath the gold (90), bonds (28), and liquidity (82) calls.
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 25/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.