Synthos Research · Macro & the big picture · all questions · the Conviction Board
Should I buy long-term bonds now?
The experts we track say no — conviction on owning duration is just 28/100. Sticky inflation plus exploding Treasury supply is the case against; the one scenario that flips it is a genuine recession (watch claims above 300k and HY spreads above 450bp).
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 28/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.