Synthos Research · Macro & the big picture · all questions · the Conviction Board
Are we heading for a recession in 2026?
Not the base case among the voices we track: equities conviction holds at 66/100 and the regime read is reflation tipping toward inflation, not contraction. But the falsifiers are precise: jobless claims through 300k and high-yield spreads above 450bp would flip the board fast — those are the two numbers to watch.
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 66/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.