Synthos Research
Frameworks — how our tracked voices actually think
A Framework is a working model of one person's worldview. From every dated claim a tracked voice has made across years of talks, interviews and writing, we reconstruct how they actually think: which beliefs are load-bearing, which causal mechanisms they genuinely assert, what they say would change their mind, what they have already changed their mind about (dated), and where they are simply silent. Every belief is backed by dated, verbatim quotes from our claim record — nothing is inferred from reputation, and a Framework may only believe what the claim record can prove.
Then we test it. Before a Framework is published, we freeze it and ask it to predict how the person would react to real events — and grade those predictions against what the person actually said next, using claims the model never saw. A Framework that fails that test is not published. The scores, including the misses, the partial credits and the small samples, are printed on every page.
educational only, not investment advice · how voices earn tracking · methodologyThe synthesis
The Synthos Framework · v0Where markets are, and where they're heading
The whole council, read against live hard data — a probabilistic view at short, medium and long horizons
Today's market reads as one specific configuration the council can name — an oil-shock liquidity event. Four causal chains, a mechanism ledger, and a probabilistic read of the next six months to the multi-year destination, with the falsifiers that would change it.
Open the Synthos Framework →Live
Live · eval passedJordi Visser
Macro · AI · Bitcoin — one of the highest-volume voices in our claim record
1,730 dated claims, 2020→2026. One full worldview pivot with
the old beliefs' death dates on the record — AI operating leverage lifts equities and pushes wealth into Bitcoin
—
plus his own stated falsifiers, and the places he is silent.
Bill Gurley
Venture · marketplaces · AI market structure — the longest span in our claim record
176 dated claims in his own voice, 2012→2026 (guest voices
excluded). The bubble template with a rotating substrate — There is an AI bubble and essentially everyone is in it
—
a robotaxi timeline that collapsed from 25 years to one on a trigger he named, and a dormant rates belief the
model flags as stale rather than fires.
Andreas Steno
Tactical macro · liquidity plumbing · positioning — the fastest-rotating Framework in our record
1,041 dated claims in his own voice, 2023→2026 (co-host and
guest voices excluded). A no-era operating system — watch Yellen's issuance, not Powell, for liquidity
—
quantified transmission lags that survived adversarial audit, a falsifier that fired on the date he named, and a
recession retreat that became a new belief.
Luke Gromen
Macro · fiscal dominance · gold and Treasuries — the longest span of the four newest Frameworks
A fiscal-dominance spine held since 2018 —
MMT wins because there is no other politically viable option
— the oil-breaks-the-Treasury-market chain,
his own priced thresholds, and a Bitcoin call that flipped bearish→bullish twice inside 30 days while the gold
thesis under it never moved.
Lyn Alden
Macro · fiscal dominance · energy and Bitcoin — the largest out-of-sample test run on any Framework so far
Her fiscal-dominance framework read in rate-of-change terms
— Nothing stops this train
— explicit if-else conditionals in place of price targets, and a record that
updates on observed data (the failed Bitcoin "barbell") rather than on expectation.
Mike Green
Market structure · passive flows · index mechanics — published with one gap disclosed, not hidden
The passive-flow framework that concentrates markets into
mega-caps — liquidity doesn't scale with market cap
— his own falsifiable thresholds (roughly 83% passive
share), and an explicit disclosure: his most famous mechanism, dealer hedging, did not survive adversarial
verification and is not published as grounded.
Doomberg
Energy · geopolitics · commodities — team-written, pseudonymous, the thinnest corpus published this round
Team-written and pseudonymous, treated as one voice. A
co-production-economics spine — dirt-cheap co-produced US natural gas are all bearish for oil
— and a
fade-the-spikes discipline, tested against a real war and disclosed as the thinnest record we have published.
Brent Johnson
Macro · dollar mechanics · Santiago Capital — the council's structural dollar-bull dissent
The dollar milkshake spine —
a rising DXY forces dedollarization by breaking access
— a structural dollar-bull case against a council of
mostly weak-dollar voices, and a disclosed gap: the model has no node for his actual Hormuz-shock trade.
Eurodollar University (Jeff Snider)
Eurodollar plumbing · deflation-first macro — the council's deepest dissent from the inflation consensus
The dollar rises on shortage, not strength —
An energy shock becoming a dollar shock is squeezing the global economy
— energy spikes are a deflationary
tax, rate moves are reaction not stimulus, and the private-credit bust is a staged recognition cascade.
Rhonda Patrick
Tactical macro · liquidity plumbing · positioning — the fastest-rotating Framework in our record
1,041 dated claims in his own voice, 2023→2026 (co-host and
guest voices excluded). A no-era operating system — watch Yellen's issuance, not Powell, for liquidity
—
quantified transmission lags that survived adversarial audit, a falsifier that fired on the date he named, and a
recession retreat that became a new belief.
Niall Ferguson · geniuses lane
Financial history · geopolitics — the first Framework built from a thinker, not a markets voice
The fiscal-decline law —
when interest payments exceed defense spending a great power declines
— the Cold War II chain from Ukraine
to Taiwan, six dated reversals including flipping on China's AI capability, and one false silence the eval
caught: his AI-optimist register, disclosed as the model's gap.
Joscha Bach · geniuses lane
Minds, machines and AGI — a Framework with no markets machinery at all, graded on AI events
The master axiom —
computation is necessary and sufficient to produce a mind
— the AGI inevitability chain
(once AGI is buildable it will be built
), coexistence through shared purpose rather than control, and the
famous scaling capitulation on the record, dated, with its trigger and its residue.
Gavin Baker
AI infrastructure · semiconductors — the Framework that failed twice before it passed, all on the record
The scaling-laws worldview —
so the largest companies with the most compute and data win
, you can't out-Nvidia Nvidia in a head-on assault
—
with a value investor's price discipline, his own pre-registered warning lights, and dated full reversals on
Nvidia and Google that taught us how to grade a fast revisionist.
Michael Howell · interview-derived
Global liquidity · CrossBorder Capital; the flows-and-refinancing lens on every asset
The global-liquidity spine ·
Liquidity and balance-sheet capacity, not interest rates, dominate markets
· rebuilt from a deep interview backlog, with one edge (oil-to-liquidity) we flag as ours, not his.
Ray Dalio
The economic machine · debt cycles, the Big Cycle of empires, money and gold
The long-term debt cycle ·
with rates hitting zero the government prints money and the central bank buys its debt
· to gold and a shifting world order, with a Bitcoin-calibration miss disclosed.
Raoul Pal · interview-derived
Macro · the Exponential Age — built from interviews where he is the guest: his voice alone, by design
The debasement loop —
That's you taking a credit card to pay off your credit card payments
— the AI-builds-AI recursion, his own
stated falsifiers, and the war-inflation mind-change the eval caught mid-flight and scored honestly as a miss.
Nassim Taleb · geniuses lane · interview-derived
Tail risk · fragility — the Framework our claims pipeline failed on, rebuilt from his conversations
The Incerto with receipts —
in the real world you're not paid in frequency right you're paid in dollars and cents
,
if you go bust you can never recover
— the hidden-risk blowup chain, and a model that refuses point
predictions because he does.
In the lab
Next Frameworks under construction. Each publishes only after it passes the same out-of-sample test — and when one falls short, we say so here rather than shipping it.