Macro · Regime summary · Updated July 1, 2026
We are in Reflation, tipping toward Inflation — under structural fiscal dominance.
Growth is firm-to-hot. Inflation is re-accelerating — headline CPI 4.3% YoY, core PCE 3.4%, both rising. Debt at 122.6% of GDP with interest outlays +41.5% YoY floors inflation near 3%, not 2% — spined by a demographic debt supercycle. Forward read: a liquidity-cycle turn in the next 6–18 months reinforces the call.
So what
Favor real assets & hard money — gold, commodities, energy, Bitcoin — and
pricing-power equities over duration.
“Own the numerator, short the denominator.”
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