Macro report · Chapter 01 of 10

Growth & Activity

Firm, still expanding — IP +1.7%, retail +6.9%.

Updated July 4, 2026 1 min read Synthos Macro Engine

Real GDP: $24,180B (2026-Q1), +$702B over six months. (Note: the +7.8% YoY print runs hot vs. the ~2-3% real trend — treat the direction as clearly positive, not the headline magnitude, which likely reflects a nominal/revision artifact.)

Industrial production: 102.65, +1.7% YoY, +1.61 over six months — accelerating, not rolling over.
Retail sales: $763.7B, +6.9% YoY, +$29B over six months — the consumer is spending in nominal terms (partly because prices are rising).

Meaning: The real economy has NOT cracked. Activity is expanding across production and consumption. Darius Dale (42 Macro) corroborates: "five recession-signaling indicators and jobless claims show low probability of a developing recession; economy hooking up" (darius_dale-c9eRKCK7-C8:9c3d244a88). The growth axis of the quadrant is pointing up.