Macro report · Chapter 04 of 10

Forward Indicators

New orders +10.4% lead up; sentiment depressed.

Updated July 4, 2026 1 min read Synthos Macro Engine

New orders (NEWORDER, LEI proxy): 83,951, +10.4% YoY, +5,330 over six months — capex/order pipeline strongly leading the cycle higher. This is the AI/reindustrialization capex wave in the hard data.

Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT): 44.8, -14.2% YoY, -6.2 over six months — deeply depressed.

Meaning: A classic split. Businesses order aggressively (forward growth signal) while consumers feel terrible — and depressed sentiment is a cost-of-living phenomenon, not a job-loss one (unemployment is 4.2%). Households hate the price level but the economy keeps moving. Net: forward indicators point to continued nominal expansion — more reflation.