Every constituent, scored 0–10 on Downside Risk (lower = safer), Growth Quality, and Exponential Potential, with price, YTD, a base-case fair value (and its bear–bull range), and a one-line take. Click a ticker for the full interactive report. ← research hub
◆ Accumulation band for XLP itself: roughly $84–$85 — the index is richly priced, so dollar-cost-averaging on dips toward the 50/200-day average (near $82) beats chasing new highs.
XLP (market-cap-weighted) vs RSPS (equal-weight), both rebased to 100 a year ago. When the cap-weighted line pulls ahead, the biggest names are carrying the index. Past year: XLP +3% vs RSPS +0% — a +3 pt spread, so a few mega-caps are carrying the index — concentration is ELEVATED.
How many of the 7 names are actually participating — a check on whether the index is broad-based or driven by a handful of mega-caps. Right now breadth looks mixed.
| Name | Verdict | Risk | Growth | Exp | Price | YTD | Fair value (range) | Entry zone | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM Philip Morris International Inc. | Watch | 5 | 7 | 4 | — | +13.6% | $192 ($145–$221) | — | PM is executing one of the cleaner big-cap transitions in consumer staples — smoke-free (IQOS, ZYN, VEEV) is now 41% of revenue and growing double-digits, mix-accretive to margins, funded by a still-cash-gushing combustible base — but at ~22× forward EPS for ~11% EPS growth the easy money is priced… |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | $112 | +0.4% | $118 ($88–$145) | — | Walmart is a genuinely fortress-quality, defensive compounder — FY26 revenue $713B (+4.7%), 24% ROE, $41.6B operating cash flow — whose problem is not the business but the *price*: at 39× trailing earnings on a razor-thin 3% net margin, the stock already sells at a rich multiple even after a 17%… |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | Hold | 6 | 7 | 3 | $952 | +10.4% | $955 ($726–$1044) | — | Costco is one of the highest-quality businesses in the S&P 500 — an 89.7% membership renewal rate, 28% ROE, a net-cash balance sheet, and utterly durable comps — but the stock discounts all of that and more at 48× trailing / 42× forward earnings for a ~9% EPS grower, so our base-case fair value… |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | $98 | +27.3% | $91 ($64–$110) | — | Monster is a pristine business — 55% gross margin, 25% ROE, zero debt, ~$2B net cash, decades of share gains in energy drinks — but after a +54% twelve-month run it trades at ~42× forward earnings for a company now growing revenue around 10%, so the price already discounts the quality; we rate it… |
| CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +17.6% | $96 ($72–$116) | — | Church & Dwight is a best-in-class consumer-staples compounder — 45% gross margin, ~17% ROE, a low-0.47 beta, and 5% organic growth on strong innovation — but at 32× trailing EPS for a low-single-digit reported grower the stock already prices in the quality, leaving a modest negative to fair value… |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +20.4% | $82 ($64–$96) | — | Coca-Cola is one of the highest-quality, most durable businesses on earth — 62% gross margin, 44% ROE, a beta of 0.35, a fortress brand-and-bottler moat — but at ~26× earnings for only mid-single-digit EPS growth the stock is priced for perfection, so we rate it Watch: a superb defensive holding to… |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | $144 | +0.5% | $159 ($126–$182) | — | PepsiCo is a fortress-quality, low-beta consumer staple throwing off ~$7.7B of free cash flow and a ~4% dividend — but FY25 revenue grew only ~2% and GAAP EPS actually *fell*, the stock is down ~15% from its high while the market ran, and there is no Synthos expert conviction behind it; it is a… |
| PG The Procter & Gamble Company | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +5.6% | $162 ($130–$180) | — | P&G is a best-in-class, fortress-balance-sheet consumer-staples compounder — 50% gross margin, 31% ROE, a 70-year dividend-raise streak — but it is growing revenue only low-single-digits and trades at ~22× earnings, so the quality is real and the price already reflects it; we rate it Watch and… |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | +20.4% | $92 ($72–$112) | — | Colgate is one of the highest-quality consumer-staples franchises on earth — 41% global toothpaste share, ~60% gross margins, 30%+ return on invested capital, a 0.32 beta — but at 37× trailing / ~24× forward earnings for roughly 4% revenue and 5–6% EPS growth, the price already reflects the… |
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +0.8% | $128 ($80–$170) | — | A newly-simplified, single-banner Dollar Tree (Family Dollar divested) is executing a credible margin turnaround — Q1 FY26 adjusted EPS +38%, comps +3.5%, guiding FY26 adjusted EPS to $6.70–$7.10 — at a genuinely undemanding ~18× forward earnings; but it's a low-growth, US-saturated discounter with… |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | $33 | +18.9% | $34 ($26–$44) | — | KDP is a well-run, low-beta beverage staple that gushes cash and pays a ~2.8% dividend, but it is only *fairly* priced, its returns on capital are pedestrian (ROIC ~4%), and its next chapter is a debt-funded coffee mega-deal and corporate split — so the honest verdict is Watch: own it for income… |
| KR The Kroger Co. | Hold | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | -6.8% | $66 ($51–$80) | — | Kroger is a cheap, defensive, cash-generative grocer trading at ~11× forward adjusted earnings with a growing dividend and heavy buybacks — but revenue barely grows (~2%/yr), net margins are razor-thin (~1.3%), returns on capital are low (ROIC ~5%), and the stock is in a clear downtrend; it is a… |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | -11.0% | $122 ($82–$168) | — | Dollar General is a cheap, low-beta, cash-generative discounter mid-way through an operational repair — FY25 revenue $42.7B (+5.2%), EPS recovering to $6.85 from the $5.11 FY24 trough — but earnings are still ~36% below the FY22 peak of $10.68, forward growth is single-digit and decelerating, and… |
| HSY The Hershey Company | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +0.1% | $199 ($145–$231) | — | Hershey owns an irreplaceable US-confectionery brand portfolio (Reese's, Hershey's, Kit Kat) throwing off ~$1.75B of free cash flow and a ~3.1% dividend — but FY25 GAAP EPS collapsed from $10.94 to $4.34 on a historic cocoa-price/derivative shock, the category is volume-flat, and the stock (down… |
| MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | $61 | +13.2% | $64 ($48–$76) | — | Mondelez is a genuinely durable global snacking franchise (Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, belVita) throwing off ~$3.2B of free cash flow — but a historic cocoa-cost shock collapsed 2025 GAAP earnings (EPS $1.89 vs $3.44), the stock still trades ~20× forward for only ~3% revenue / ~8% EPS growth, and there… |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorpo | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | -21.5% | $55 ($40–$68) | — | McCormick is a genuinely high-quality, wide-moat spice franchise (38% gross margin, 26% ROE, a 39-year dividend-raise streak) — but it grows only mid-single-digits, carries 3.4× net-debt/EBITDA, and the stock is in a real down-trend (−31% over 12 months), so at ~$53 it is close to fairly valued… |
| SYY Sysco Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +15.1% | $88 ($66–$108) | — | Sysco is the dominant North American food-distribution utility — #1 share, real scale moat, a 45+ year dividend-raiser — but it is a low-growth, thin-margin, leveraged operator trading at a fair-to-full multiple, so the honest call is Watch: own it for defensive income if you must, but there is no… |
| TGT Target Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +33.2% | $132 ($92–$175) | — | Target is a cheap, cash-generative, dividend-paying big-box retailer that just delivered a genuinely encouraging quarter (Q1 FY26 sales +6.7%, comps +5.6%) and raised guidance — but it is also a business whose revenue has gone *nowhere* for four years, whose ROIC has slipped to 12.4%, and which… |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | +19.5% | $120 ($78–$150) | — | Bunge is a 200-year-old, well-managed global grain trader and oilseed crusher that just doubled its footprint by absorbing Viterra — the stock is genuinely cheap on forward earnings (~11× FY26E) and pays a 2.6% dividend, but it is a thin-margin, highly cyclical, capital-intensive commodity business… |
| TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +0.5% | $60 ($42–$78) | — | Tyson is America's largest protein packer trading like the low-margin commodity processor it is — a 3.4%-yielding defensive staple whose forward "growth" is really a recovery off a beaten-down FY25 (net income $474M, 6.5% gross margin), where the Street's $73 target bakes in a beef-cycle turn we… |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | Hold | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | +5.5% | $24 ($18–$30) | — | Hormel is a 130-year-old, low-beta Dividend Aristocrat (SPAM, Skippy, Planters, Applegate, Jennie-O) whose earnings have gone sideways-to-down for four years; the stock is *reasonable* on forward adjusted EPS and pays ~4.7%, but with ~2% revenue growth, mid-single-digit ROIC and no expert… |
| KVUE Kenvue Inc. | Hold | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | +15.0% | $20.50 ($15.00–$21.00) | — | Kenvue is no longer a stock you value on its own fundamentals — it is a near-closed merger-arbitrage instrument: Kimberly-Clark has an approved, cash-and-stock agreement to buy it, so the ~$19.83 price mostly reflects the deal spread and KMB's share price, and the entire risk/reward reduces to… |
| BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation | Hold | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | +0.3% | $28 ($21–$39) | — | Brown-Forman owns one of the best brands in beverage alcohol (Jack Daniel's) and a 42-year dividend-increase streak, but FY26 sales *fell* 1% and EPS *fell* 17%, management guides FY27 organic operating income *down* 3–5%, and the stock — while not expensive at ~17× — offers no growth catalyst; it… |
| TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | Hold | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | -14.8% | $44 ($30–$56) | — | TAP is a cheap, cash-generative, high-dividend (4.8%) legacy brewer whose earnings-per-share still grind higher on aggressive buybacks — but underlying volumes are shrinking (brand volume −3.1% in Q1'26), revenue is flat-to-down, and there is no organic growth engine; it screens as a value/income… |
| CLX The Clorox Company | Hold | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | -3.5% | $103 ($80–$128) | — | Clorox is a high-quality, low-beta consumer-staples franchise (Clorox bleach, Glad, Kingsford, Brita, Burt's Bees, Hidden Valley, now Purell) throwing off a ~5% dividend — but it is essentially ex-growth (revenue ~$7B for a decade), is guiding to a ~6% sales decline and ~9% organic decline in FY26… |
| KHC The Kraft Heinz Company | Hold | 6 | 3 | 1 | $25 | +4.6% | $25 ($17–$33) | — | Kraft Heinz is a cheap, cash-generative, high-yielding packaged-food giant whose brands are slowly losing pricing power — FY25 booked a $9B+ non-cash brand impairment and revenue has fallen three years running — so the whole question is whether ~13% FCF yield and a 6% dividend compensate you for a… |
| MO Altria Group, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | +26.1% | $70 ($52–$84) | — | Altria is a cash machine in structural decline: FY25 revenue slipped to $20.1B on falling cigarette volumes, but Marlboro's pricing power still throws off ~$9B of free cash flow that funds a ~6% dividend — you are buying a high-yield, low-growth bond-proxy near fair value, not a stock that will… |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | Hold | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | +18.9% | $118 ($88–$140) | — | Smucker is a cheap, 3.8%-yielding consumer-staples name whose adjusted earnings power is real (~$9–10 of adj EPS, $1.0–1.2B free cash flow) but whose *growth is gone* — management itself guides FY27 sales down 3–4%, GAAP results have been buried under back-to-back goodwill impairments from the 2023… |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | Avoid | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +13.7% | $113 ($88–$140) | — | Kimberly-Clark is a low-beta, 50+-year dividend-raiser throwing off ~$1.6B of free cash flow and a 4.4% yield, but it sits in structurally low-growth tissue/personal-care categories, carries a levered balance sheet (net-debt/EBITDA ~2.1×), just slimmed to a smaller "continuing operations" base… |
| EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | Avoid | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | -20.1% | $77 ($41–$109) | — | Estée Lauder is a real, credible self-help turnaround — management's "Beauty Reimagined" plan is restoring organic sales growth and expanding margins for the first time in four years — but after a −77% peak-to-trough collapse the stock has already re-rated to price *in* that recovery (34× FY26E… |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | Avoid | 5 | 3 | 2 | — | +33.6% | $78 ($55–$96) | — | ADM is a low-multiple, dividend-paying global grain merchant whose earnings just bottomed (FY25 EPS $2.23 vs $7.72 in 2022): it screens cheap on free cash flow and management is guiding FY26 adjusted EPS *up* on U.S. biofuels-policy clarity, but revenue is shrinking, returns on capital are sub-5%… |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | Avoid | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | -19.2% | $37 ($28–$48) | — | GIS is a cheap, 6.5%-yielding, low-beta packaged-food defensive whose core North American Retail business is in volume decline (FY26 organic sales −2%, GAAP loss driven by a $1.8B goodwill/brand impairment and a $1.0B Brazil-divestiture writedown) — the numbers say "value, not growth," and with… |
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | Avoid | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | -0.4% | $160 ($113–$200) | — | Constellation is a cheap, cash-generative beer company (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico) trading at 13× earnings with a ~3% dividend — but revenue *fell 10% in FY26*, beer depletions have turned negative, management itself guides to roughly flat organic sales, and 100% of the beer it sells is brewed in… |