Every constituent, scored 0–10 on Downside Risk (lower = safer), Growth Quality, and Exponential Potential, with price, YTD, a base-case fair value (and its bear–bull range), and a one-line take. Click a ticker for the full interactive report. ← research hub
◆ Accumulation band for XLK itself: roughly $179–$181 — the index is richly priced, so dollar-cost-averaging on dips toward the 50/200-day average (near $152) beats chasing new highs.
XLK (market-cap-weighted) vs RSPT (equal-weight), both rebased to 100 a year ago. When the cap-weighted line pulls ahead, the biggest names are carrying the index. Past year: XLK +42% vs RSPT +49% — a -7 pt spread, so broad participation — concentration is LOW.
How many of the 37 names are actually participating — a check on whether the index is broad-based or driven by a handful of mega-caps. Right now breadth looks broad.
| Name | Verdict | Risk | Growth | Exp | Price | YTD | Fair value (range) | Entry zone | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | Buy — Core | 4 | 8 | 4 | $207 | -29.9% | $300 ($215–$390) | $187–$207 | Autodesk is a genuinely elite software franchise — 91% gross margin, ~$2.4B free cash flow, near-monopoly grip on the world's CAD/design files — trading at ~16.5× forward non-GAAP earnings after a 33% drawdown, so the question is not quality but whether a messy sales restructuring and the… |
| MSFT Microsoft Corporation | Buy — Core | 4 | 8 | 4 | $390 | -19.3% | $545 ($340–$730) | $351–$390 | Microsoft is the rare megacap where the fundamentals (FY25 revenue +14.9% to $282B, 68% gross margin, $102B net income, 33% ROE) and a high-skill expert panel (Azure as one of the few at-scale AI clouds; a $1.3T contracted backlog) point the same way — and after a 28% drawdown the stock now trades… |
| NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 10 | 8 | $195 | +4.5% | $245 ($110–$360) | $191–$195 | The most important company of the AI buildout is also, unusually, *not* priced like a bubble — FY26 revenue grew 65% to $216B, net margin is 63%, the balance sheet is net-cash, and the stock trades at ~30× trailing / ~22× forward earnings; we own it as a core position, with the whole call resting… |
| ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 9 | 6 | — | +22.1% | $178 ($100–$240) | — | Arista is the highest-quality pure-play on AI/cloud back-end Ethernet networking — FY25 revenue +28.6% to $9.0B, 63% gross margin, 38% net margin, 31% ROE, and *zero debt with ~$10.7B net cash* — but you pay 54× trailing for it, the AI-capex cycle it rides is inherently cyclical, and a few… |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 5 | 7 | 4 | — | +17.1% | $415 ($270–$500) | — | Corpay is a boring-in-a-good-way B2B payments compounder — 25% headline / 11% organic revenue growth, 73% gross margins, 31% ROE — trading at only ~13× forward adjusted earnings, so the math works if management simply keeps executing; the catch is there is zero expert coverage to corroborate the… |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 7 | 6 | — | +213.2% | $440 ($235–$585) | — | Dell has turned into a genuine AI-infrastructure earnings story — Q1 FY27 revenue +88% to $43.8B, $24.4B of AI orders booked, management raising the full-year revenue outlook to $167B (+47%) and AI-server revenue to ~$60B — but it is still a low-margin (19% gross), cyclical, high-beta hardware… |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Compa | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 7 | 6 | — | +71.6% | $52 ($32–$65) | — | HPE just closed the ~$14B Juniper Networks deal and posted a record Q2 FY26 (revenue +40% to $10.7B, Networking +148%, non-GAAP EPS $0.79 vs a $0.51–0.55 guide), pulling it "two years ahead" of its own FY28 plan — yet the stock trades at only ~12× forward non-GAAP EPS because the market doubts the… |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 7 | 6 | — | +21.1% | $91 ($50–$124) | — | Block is a two-sided fintech (Cash App + Square) whose *reported* revenue is flat and Bitcoin-inflated, but whose gross profit grew ~17% to $10.4B with margins and free cash flow inflecting — and it trades at just 15× FY27E earnings with a net-cash balance sheet, so the risk/reward is favorable… |
| MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +10.3% | $475 ($345–$580) | — | Motorola Solutions owns a genuinely elite, near-monopoly franchise (roughly 80% of US land-mobile-radio, a sticky razor/razor-blade model selling networks then high-margin radios and software to governments) — but it grows only mid-single-digits, the stock has been dead money for a year (−0.7% vs… |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | +10.0% | $309 ($226–$370) | — | ZBRA is a high-quality, market-leading enterprise-hardware franchise (barcode scanners, rugged mobile computers, RFID, industrial printers) trading at a genuinely undemanding ~13–14× forward non-GAAP earnings after a deep cyclical drawdown — but it is a *cyclical* with only ~4% organic growth… |
| QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | Buy — Tactical | 5 | 5 | 4 | $176 | +3.0% | $200 ($120–$265) | $168–$176 | QCOM is a high-return, cash-gushing wireless franchise trading at a genuine discount (~16× forward, 6.7% FCF yield) because the market is pricing the twin structural threats — Apple insourcing its modem and a mature smartphone TAM — against which management is racing to diversify into autos, IoT… |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | -1.9% | $30 ($23–$40) | — | Gen Digital is the Norton/Avast/LifeLock consumer-cyber-safety cash machine — genuinely cheap (~9× forward non-GAAP earnings), a ~9.5% free-cash-flow yield, and a fat 76% gross margin — but the +27% FY26 headline was inflated by the MoneyLion acquisition, the underlying business grows… |
| INTU Intuit Inc. | Watch | 5 | 8 | 4 | $275 | -58.4% | $440 ($255–$585) | — | Intuit is a genuinely elite software franchise — 81% gross margin, 23% ROE, $6B free cash flow, growing double digits — that the market has repriced from ~$800 to $275 on the fear that AI makes tax and bookkeeping software a commodity; at ~10× forward earnings and a 10% FCF yield you are paid to… |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 8 | 6 | — | -8.9% | $88 ($55–$118) | — | A genuine platform compounder now trading at its cheapest in years — FY25 revenue +18% to $52B, GAAP net income $10B, FCF $9.8B, ROE 33%, net-debt/EBITDA 1.1× — where the *entire* bull-vs-bear argument collapses into one unresolved question: does the autonomous-vehicle transition make Uber the… |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | Watch | 4 | 7 | 3 | $220 | -37.2% | $265 ($150–$355) | — | Adobe is a genuinely elite software franchise — 89% gross margins, 96% subscription, $27B ARR, 62% ROE — trading at a beaten-down 9× forward non-GAAP earnings near a seven-year low because the market is pricing an AI-driven erosion of its moat; the debate is not about quality, it is entirely about… |
| TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 7 | 4 | — | -29.9% | $375 ($235–$480) | — | Tyler is the dominant vendor of mission-critical software to US state and local governments — recurring revenue is 88% of the total, SaaS has grown 20%+ for 21 straight quarters, the balance sheet is net-cash, and FCF is inflecting — but the stock has fallen ~49% from its high as the market… |
| ACN Accenture plc | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -48.8% | $170 ($122–$232) | — | A best-in-class, net-cash, cash-gushing IT-services compounder that the market has re-rated from a growth premium to a ~11× value multiple on fears that generative AI hollows out its people-based model — the numbers still say "high-quality business at a cheap price," but the −55% chart and an… |
| BR Broadridge Financial Solutions, | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -35.5% | $187 ($120–$240) | — | Broadridge is a deeply entrenched financial-market infrastructure processor (proxy/investor communications + trade processing) that just fell ~46% from its high while the business kept compounding — FY25 revenue $6.89B (+5.9%), 40% ROE, ~$1.06B free cash flow, and management raising FY26… |
| GRMN Garmin Ltd. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | +18.3% | $250 ($175–$320) | — | Garmin is a genuinely excellent, debt-free, high-return niche hardware company (FY25 revenue +15% to $7.25B, 59% gross margin, 20% ROE, $2.1B net cash) — but after a spectacular 2024–25 wearables surge the growth is normalizing back to low-teens, the stock already trades at 27× trailing, and with… |
| JKHY Jack Henry & Associates, Inc | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -19.5% | $158 ($112–$196) | — | Jack Henry is a genuinely excellent, fortress-balance-sheet vertical-software business — >99% customer retention, net cash, 24% ROE — but it grows earnings at only high-single digits, trades at ~20× earnings, and just printed an overbought RSI 77 after a −24% slide from its highs; we Watch it as a… |
| PTC PTC Inc. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 4 | — | -28.5% | $172 ($113–$226) | — | PTC is a high-margin, recurring-revenue industrial-software franchise (Creo CAD, Windchill PLM, Onshape, Arena) that has sold off ~42% from its high on decelerating ARR and a messy divestiture-driven optical picture — leaving a genuinely profitable, cash-generative business trading at ~15× forward… |
| TEL TE Connectivity plc | Watch | 4 | 6 | 4 | — | -13.2% | $225 ($165–$285) | — | A well-run, cash-generative global connector-and-sensor maker riding a real AI/data-center demand wave (record orders +25% YoY, adjusted EPS +24%) — but it is a mature, cyclical hardware business trading near fair value with zero expert conviction in our KB, so it earns a Watch, not a Buy. |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | -37.3% | $205 ($120–$280) | — | Salesforce is a high-quality, deeply cash-generative franchise (FY26 revenue $41.5B, 78% gross margin, $14.4B free cash flow) trading at a genuinely cheap ~19× earnings / 11× EV-to-free-cash-flow — but the stock has been *cut in half* because the market fears agentic AI erodes the per-seat SaaS… |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | -28.7% | $108 ($70–$150) | — | GoDaddy is a highly cash-generative, low-growth microbusiness-services utility that the market has cut in half — you're paying ~12× forward earnings and getting a 14% free-cash-flow yield for a business buying back ~5% of its stock a year; the debate is whether AI is a tailwind (Airo) or the thing… |
| TRMB Trimble Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 4 | — | -32.3% | $68 ($42–$88) | — | Trimble has quietly re-shaped itself from a lumpy hardware maker into a higher-margin, recurring-revenue software company (ARR $2.43B, +12%), the stock has been cut ~45% from its high, and it now trades at ~15× forward non-GAAP EPS with the Street ~70% above — but with no expert coverage in our KB… |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 2 | — | +5.5% | $265 ($185–$316) | — | VeriSign is one of the highest-quality business models in the S&P 500 — a government-sanctioned near-monopoly on .com/.net with 88% gross margins, 50% net margins and 100% pricing discipline — but it grows revenue only ~6-7% a year, the stock already trades at ~28× earnings, and the price lever is… |
| WDAY Workday, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | $135 | -37.0% | $160 ($95–$225) | — | Workday is a genuinely high-quality, 92%-recurring enterprise-software franchise that has de-rated hard (stock −43% in 12 months) as growth slowed from the 20s to low-teens; on adjusted earnings it is no longer expensive (~12–13× FY27E), but with growth still decelerating and no expert conviction… |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | Hold | 6 | 9 | 6 | $360 | +4.1% | $405 ($250–$560) | — | Broadcom has become the second pillar of the AI-infrastructure buildout — custom accelerators (XPUs) and data-center networking — with FY25 revenue +24% to $63.9B, a 67% gross / 56% EBITDA margin, and ~$27B of free cash flow; the fundamentals are elite, but you are paying 58× trailing / 31× forward… |
| APP AppLovin Corporation | Hold | 7 | 9 | 7 | $527 | -21.8% | $590 ($300–$870) | — | AppLovin has transformed from a grab-bag mobile-gaming company into a pure, freakishly profitable advertising-software engine — FY25 revenue $5.48B (+70%), 88% gross margin, 64% net margin, $3.9B free cash flow — but the market already knows it: at 45× trailing and a 2.46 beta, you are paying a… |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | Hold | 8 | 9 | 8 | $129 | -27.3% | $140 ($75–$205) | — | Palantir is one of the highest-quality, fastest-*accelerating* businesses in the Nasdaq-100 — FY25 revenue +56% to $4.48B, 84% gross margin, net cash, commercial revenue +130% — and the expert panel is genuinely enthusiastic; the problem is entirely the price, where 135× trailing / 89× forward… |
| APH Amphenol Corporation | Hold | 6 | 8 | 5 | — | +21.8% | $175 ($110–$217) | — | Amphenol is a genuinely elite, serial-compounding connector manufacturer riding an AI-datacom boom — Q1'26 sales grew 58% (33% organic) with a 1.24 book-to-bill — but after a 69% twelve-month run the stock trades at 45× trailing / 34× forward earnings, so our base-case fair value (~$175) sits only… |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | Hold | 6 | 8 | 5 | — | -24.8% | $1510 ($830–$1970) | — | FICO owns one of the best business models on the planet — a credit-score monopoly with ~84% gross margins and ~53% return on invested capital that just raised FY26 guidance twice — but the stock has fallen ~31% in a year as the market frets that the aggressive mortgage-score price increases… |
| KLAC KLA Corporation | Hold | 6 | 8 | 4 | $236 | +93.9% | $205 ($135–$290) | — | KLA owns a near-monopoly in semiconductor process control (defect inspection + metrology) with 61% gross margins and ~89% ROE — a genuinely elite business — but after a +162% 12-month run the stock trades at 66× trailing / 46× forward earnings into an elevated wafer-fab-equipment (WFE) cycle, so… |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 8 | 6 | $1,288 | +42.1% | $1385 ($885–$1770) | — | MPWR is a best-in-class, net-cash, ~55%-gross-margin power-semiconductor compounder growing ~20%+ into the data-center/AI power build-out — but at 92× trailing / 54× forward earnings the price already assumes the growth, so our base case pegs fair value only modestly above spot and we rate it Watch… |
| NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 8 | 5 | — | -30.6% | $142 ($83–$180) | — | ServiceNow is a genuinely elite enterprise-software compounder — FY25 revenue $13.3B (+21%), 77% gross margin, $4.6B free cash flow — whose stock has been *cut in half* (−47% in 12 months, −55% from peak) on fears that agentic AI disrupts seat-based SaaS and on a real complaint that stock-based… |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 8 | 5 | $603 | +134.7% | $540 ($360–$780) | — | Applied Materials is the largest, most diversified wafer-fabrication-equipment maker on earth — a genuine picks-and-shovels toll on the AI build-out with 49% gross margins, 40% ROE and a net-cash balance sheet — but after a +228% twelve-month run the stock trades at 49× forward earnings on a… |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 8 | 5 | $373 | +19.4% | $400 ($270–$500) | — | Cadence is one half of a genuinely mission-critical EDA duopoly with a fortress balance sheet (net cash), 89% gross margins and a record $8.0B backlog — a wonderful business whose stock already prices in years of flawless execution, so the honest call is Watch and wait for a better entry, not chase… |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | Hold | 7 | 8 | 7 | — | +80.6% | $435 ($250–$615) | — | Ciena is the picks-and-shovels optical-networking supplier that is now a direct beneficiary of the AI-datacenter interconnect buildout: fiscal-Q2'26 revenue grew 40% YoY, adjusted EPS nearly quadrupled, and management *raised* full-year revenue guidance to ~$6.3B (+32%). The stock has already… |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 8 | 6 | $260 | +91.5% | $235 ($150–$340) | — | Datadog is a genuinely elite software business — 80% gross margins, ~19% forward revenue compounding, $1B of free cash flow and best-in-class land-and-expand — but at 107× forward non-GAAP EPS after a +97% twelve-month run, the market has already paid for years of flawless execution; the only KB… |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | Hold | 7 | 8 | 5 | $351 | +105.3% | $300 ($185–$370) | — | Lam is a genuinely elite, oligopoly semiconductor-equipment franchise riding a real AI-driven capex wave (FY-ending-June-25 revenue $18.4B, 50% gross margin, 66% ROE, net cash) — but after a +263% twelve-month run the stock trades at 66× trailing earnings and sits *above* our base-case fair value… |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | Hold | 7 | 8 | 7 | — | -28.0% | $205 ($95–$300) | — | Oracle re-invented itself from a mature database company into the fastest-growing large-scale AI-cloud provider — FY26 revenue +17% to $67.4B, cloud infrastructure +77%, and a $638B RPO backlog that grew 363% — but the stock has been cut in half from its high because building those datacenters is… |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 8 | 5 | $348 | +89.0% | $296 ($173–$415) | — | Palo Alto is the highest-quality platform in cybersecurity — ~$9.2B FY25 revenue growing mid-teens, 72% gross margin, net-cash balance sheet, and a genuine AI-security tailwind — but at ~85–92× forward earnings and RSI 84 it is priced for flawless execution, and our disciplined base-case fair value… |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Hold | 8 | 8 | 8 | $518 | +141.8% | $545 ($300–$800) | — | AMD is the clearest #2 in the biggest secular buildout of the decade: data-center revenue ($16.6B FY25) is now its largest segment and total revenue is estimated to nearly *quintuple* to ~$171B by FY30 — but you pay 168× trailing / 69× forward earnings for a business at ~50% gross margin and 13%… |
| CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | Hold | 8 | 8 | 5 | $194 | +65.5% | $134 ($66–$203) | — | CrowdStrike is a genuinely elite, category-leading cybersecurity platform whose fundamentals are re-accelerating (net-new ARR +32% in Q1'27, FY27 ARR-growth guide *raised*), but the stock has run +97% in three months to 41× sales and ~157× forward non-GAAP EPS — a price at which even a strong bull… |
| FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 4 | $156 | +96.8% | $120 ($84–$165) | — | Fortinet is a genuinely elite cybersecurity franchise — 81% gross margin, 34% ROIC, net cash, a rising subscription/SASE mix and $2.2B of free cash flow — but after a +52% twelve-month run the stock trades at ~50× forward earnings on only low-teens, decelerating revenue growth, and the entire… |
| KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 4 | — | +54.5% | $300 ($210–$405) | — | Keysight is a genuinely high-quality, wide-moat electronic test-and-measurement franchise firing on all cylinders right now (record H1 FY26, orders topping $2B/quarter, full-year outlook raised) — but after a ~90% twelve-month run the stock trades at 52× trailing / 31× forward earnings for a… |
| SNPS Synopsys, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 5 | $437 | -6.9% | $515 ($320–$630) | — | Synopsys is one half of the EDA duopoly that every chip on earth is designed through — a genuinely wide-moat, recurring-revenue franchise now trading ~30× forward after a brutal −32% drawdown, but the story is complicated by a debt-funded, margin-diluting Ansys acquisition that inflates FY26 growth… |
| TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software, I | Hold | 6 | 7 | 6 | $255 | -0.4% | $250 ($150–$360) | — | Take-Two owns two of the most valuable franchises in entertainment (Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K) and is one of the few gaming pure-plays with a genuine, near-term step-change coming — but at ~$255 the market already prices Grand Theft Auto VI as a near-certainty, the company is still posting GAAP… |
| COHR Coherent Corp. | Hold | 7 | 7 | 6 | — | +80.6% | $375 ($200–$500) | — | Coherent is a merger-built photonics leader (II-VI + the old Coherent) that has become a front-line AI-datacenter optics supplier — revenue is re-accelerating (Q3 FY26 +21% Y/Y, non-GAAP operating margin 20.3%) and estimates imply ~30% forward revenue growth, but you are paying 61× this-year… |
| GLW Corning Incorporated | Hold | 7 | 7 | 6 | — | +124.6% | $205 ($120–$300) | — | Corning is a 175-year-old glass and materials company that has genuinely re-invented itself as the picks-and-shovels optical-fiber supplier to the AI data-center buildout — the fundamentals are inflecting (FY25 revenue +19% to $15.6B, core EPS growing 30% YoY, Meta plus two more multi-billion… |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 7 | 8 | $245 | +188.6% | $250 ($140–$360) | — | Marvell has transformed from a sleepy diversified chip vendor into a nearly-pure AI data-center interconnect and custom-silicon play (Data Center is now $6.1B of $8.19B FY26 revenue), and the growth is both fast and still accelerating — but the stock already discounts a lot of that, trades at 83×… |
| TER Teradyne, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 7 | 7 | $369 | +90.7% | $400 ($250–$560) | — | Teradyne is the #2 name in the automated-test-equipment duopoly, riding a genuine AI-compute and high-bandwidth-memory test surge (FY26E revenue +42%, EPS +114% *estimated*) with a net-cash balance sheet — but the stock has already tripled in twelve months, trades at ~49× FY26E earnings with a 1.79… |
| LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Hold | 8 | 7 | 8 | $728 | +97.6% | $780 ($300–$1120) | — | Lumentum is a real winner of the AI build-out — datacenter optical demand has taken quarterly revenue from $337M (FQ1'25) to $808M (FQ3'26) and analysts model revenue nearly quadrupling to ~$12.8B by FY29 — but after a ~700% twelve-month run the stock already prices in a lot of that, on a cyclical… |
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | Hold | 8 | 7 | 6 | $539 | +212.9% | $430 ($210–$640) | — | WDC is riding a genuine AI-datacenter storage boom — post-SanDisk it is a pure-play nearline-HDD maker whose revenue is set to re-accelerate ~28%/yr and whose margins are inflecting — but the stock has already risen 744% in twelve months, the trailing P/E is flattered by a one-time separation gain… |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | $309 | +13.5% | $300 ($215–$400) | — | Apple is one of the best businesses on earth — 48% gross margin, ~$99B free cash flow, a 2.3B-device installed base and a Services engine at a record $109B — but at 37× trailing earnings for ~11% forward EPS growth you are paying a premium price for a decelerating mega-cap whose AI position is a… |
| ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | $377 | +39.1% | $400 ($300–$500) | — | ADI is a genuinely elite analog/mixed-signal franchise — 64% gross margins, $4.3B free cash flow, and a diversified industrial/auto book — now emerging from a deep chip-cycle trough (FY25 revenue +17%), but the stock at ~56× GAAP / ~31× forward earnings already discounts a clean recovery, so the… |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 5 | — | +49.7% | $351 ($218–$420) | — | Jabil is a well-run, newly AI-levered contract manufacturer executing beautifully (FY26 core EPS guided to $12.70, revenue reaccelerating on AI-infrastructure demand), but the stock has already priced most of that in — our base-case fair value of ~$351 is barely above today's $341, so we rate it… |
| TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | -49.7% | $25 ($15–$38) | — | The Trade Desk is still a high-margin, cash-generative leader of the independent (non-walled-garden) ad-buying market, but the stock has been cut ~75% in a year as revenue growth collapsed from ~40% to ~12% and competition intensified — the valuation is finally *reasonable* (21× earnings, 9% FCF… |
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | $293 | +68.9% | $270 ($175–$360) | — | Texas Instruments is one of the highest-quality franchises in all of semis — 57% gross margin, 32% ROE, a fortress distribution moat in analog/embedded chips — but after a +39% twelve-month run it trades at ~50× trailing and ~38× forward earnings while free cash flow is still squeezed by a historic… |
| FLEX Flex Ltd. | Hold | 7 | 6 | 5 | — | +126.5% | $117 ($60–$154) | — | Flex is a genuinely improving contract manufacturer riding a real AI-infrastructure tailwind (power, cooling, data-center IT), and just announced a spin-off of its Cloud & Power Infrastructure segment — but after a +182% 12-month run the stock trades at ~41× adjusted earnings for a business that… |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 6 | 7 | $976 | +241.8% | $1150 ($620–$1830) | — | This is the purest liquid way to own the AI-memory (HBM) super-cycle: revenue went from $9.3B to $41.5B a quarter in a year and EPS from $1.69 to $25.04, HBM is sold out through 2026, and the stock is *statistically cheap* on forward EPS — but that cheapness exists precisely because memory is a… |
| STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | Hold | 8 | 6 | 4 | $820 | +197.8% | $600 ($220–$864) | — | Seagate is executing a genuine boom — TTM revenue up ~42% and net margin more than doubled as AI-driven "mass-capacity" nearline HDD demand tightens supply — but the stock has already risen +465% in twelve months into that boom, trades at ~30× FY27E EPS on a deeply cyclical business with a 2.08… |
| CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 4 | $113 | +46.3% | $118 ($82–$148) | — | Cisco is a mature, cash-gushing networking incumbent that the market has re-rated as an AI-infrastructure beneficiary (stock +63% in 12 months, near all-time highs); the business is genuinely good — 64% gross margin, 25% ROE, ~$13B free cash flow — but at 37× trailing GAAP earnings and ~26× forward… |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 3 | — | +59.9% | $390 ($280–$505) | — | F5 is a genuinely good, cash-generative infrastructure-software business that has quietly turned an AI-inference and hybrid-multicloud story into seven straight quarters of double-digit product growth — but the stock has already re-rated from ~$224 to ~$408 in a year (mostly multiple, not… |
| LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 3 | — | -39.7% | $138 ($88–$178) | — | Leidos is a defensive, US-government IT and services prime that grew FY25 revenue only ~3% to $17.2B but throws off ~$1.6B of free cash flow and trades at just 9.9× earnings after a −46% drawdown driven by federal-budget fear — a cheap, low-beta value/mean-reversion setup where management just… |
| TDY Teledyne Technologies Incorporat | Hold | 4 | 5 | 3 | — | +27.7% | $660 ($500–$820) | — | Teledyne is a superbly-run, Danaher-style serial acquirer of niche sensing, imaging and defense-electronics businesses (FY25 revenue $6.12B +7.9%, GAAP EPS $18.88, FCF $1.07B), but at 33× trailing on ~5% organic revenue growth the stock already reflects the quality — so it earns a Watch, not a Buy… |
| CDW CDW Corporation | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | -2.1% | $150 ($110–$195) | — | CDW is a well-run, cash-generative IT reseller trading at a modest ~16× earnings and a ~1.9% dividend, but it is a thin-margin, cyclical middleman growing revenue in the mid-single digits — a reasonable value-and-income holding, not a compounder or an exponential, and with no expert conviction in… |
| CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions C | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | -49.4% | $74 ($47–$104) | — | A profitable, net-cash, cash-generative IT-services leader has been cut roughly in half (−48% in 12 months) on fears that generative AI guts the offshore labor-arbitrage model — leaving it at ~7× forward earnings with a ~12% free-cash-flow yield and 21% quarterly bookings growth; the tactical bet… |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +13.5% | $62 ($46–$78) | — | Fortive is a freshly slimmed-down, higher-quality industrial-technology compounder — the June 2025 spin of Precision Technologies (Ralliant) left a two-segment, software-and-healthcare-tilted business with 62% gross margins and 29% adjusted-EBITDA margins — but it trades at a full 21× forward… |
| NTAP NetApp, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +44.0% | $150 ($110–$200) | — | NetApp is a well-run, cash-generative, all-flash-and-cloud storage leader trading at a fair-to-full ~19× forward non-GAAP earnings, but its FY26 revenue grew only 5% and management guides FY27 to ~7–9% — this is a high-quality *compounder-at-a-fair-price*, not a mispriced growth story, so we rate… |
| NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 4 | $273 | +25.9% | $285 ($175–$375) | — | NXPI is a high-quality automotive- and industrial-analog chipmaker coming off a three-year revenue decline ($13.3B FY23 → $12.3B FY25); the stock at ~26× trailing / ~18× forward is priced *for* a cyclical recovery that the estimates already assume — a solid business with no margin of safety and no… |
| ON ON Semiconductor Corporation (on | Hold | 6 | 5 | 5 | — | +68.5% | $95 ($53–$130) | — | onsemi is a high-beta power-and-sensing semiconductor company that has "moved beyond the cyclical trough" (management's own words, Q1'26) with a genuinely accelerating AI-datacenter and silicon-carbide EV story — but the stock has already rallied ~70% in twelve months, trades at 64× trough earnings… |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporate | Hold | 7 | 5 | 4 | $85 | +32.8% | $99 ($61–$124) | — | Microchip is a high-quality embedded-controller franchise coming off the deepest downcycle in its history (revenue fell from $7.6B to $4.4B, then began recovering to $4.7B), and the stock already prices in a full recovery — so the fundamentals say "great business, wrong price," and with zero expert… |
| SNDK Sandisk Corporation | Hold | 9 | 5 | 3 | $1,745 | +635.1% | $984 ($450–$1443) | — | Sandisk is a good company caught in a violent NAND memory up-cycle that has re-rated the stock ~38× in twelve months; the earnings are real *today* (Q3 FY26 EPS $24.43, 78% gross margin) but they are peak-cycle, the balance sheet was posting a $1.6B loss just a year ago, beta is 4.88, and at $1,745… |
| IT Gartner, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 4 | 3 | — | -46.0% | $175 ($95–$250) | — | Gartner is a genuinely elite subscription-research franchise — 68% gross margin, ~21% ROIC, ~14% FCF yield — that the market has cut by two-thirds because growth stalled and AI threatens the core product; at ~10× forward earnings the price already reflects a lot of pain, so this is a cheap-quality… |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 4 | — | +29.7% | $122 ($75–$155) | — | Akamai is a profitable, cash-generative infrastructure company mid-way through a hard pivot — from a shrinking content-delivery (CDN) business toward Security and a fast-growing enterprise cloud (CIS/Linode) leg — and the stock is cheap *because* the market is unsure the transition math works; the… |
| FIS Fidelity National Information Se | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | -37.1% | $50 ($30–$70) | — | FIS is a cheap, cash-generative, post-Worldpay bank-technology utility trading at ~6.6× forward earnings with a 4% dividend — the numbers scream "value" — but the stock has fallen 49% in a year, growth is only mid-single-digit organically, and the one expert voice in our KB says the newer… |
| IBM International Business Machines | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | -2.3% | $295 ($200–$350) | — | IBM has genuinely reshaped itself into a software-led hybrid-cloud-and-AI business with strong free cash flow and a well-covered dividend — but at 25× trailing earnings for ~5% revenue growth, a leveraged balance sheet (net-debt/EBITDA 3.3×), and a consensus EPS line that flattens after FY27, the… |
| FISV Fiserv, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 4 | 2 | — | -22.1% | $58 ($34–$85) | — | Fiserv is a formerly-beloved payments compounder that has cratered ~78% from its high after organic revenue turned *negative* and margins compressed; it now trades at ~6× forward earnings with a ~15% FCF yield, so the debate is no longer "great growth stock" but "is this a cheap, mispriced… |
| SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. | Hold | 7 | 4 | 5 | — | -7.0% | $30 ($15–$49) | — | SMCI screens statistically cheap (8-10× forward EPS, 0.68× EV/sales) because it rode the AI-server wave to $22B revenue — but the market is discounting it for good reasons: gross margin has collapsed to ~8-10%, operating cash flow is deeply negative, net debt has swung to ~$7.5B, and the board is… |
| INTC Intel Corp. | Hold | 8 | 4 | 5 | $120 | +226.2% | $95 ($45–$165) | — | Intel is a genuine reshoring-and-turnaround story that the market has already re-rated violently (from a ~$19 low to $120, +427% in 12 months), pushing the stock above the Street's $98 average target while the company is still losing money (FY25 net loss −$267M, Q1'26 −$3.7B) and burning cash (FY25… |
| EA Electronic Arts Inc. | Hold | 4 | 3 | 2 | $205 | +0.4% | $210 ($150–$210) | — | EA is no longer a stock you value on its fundamentals — on 2025-09-29 it signed a definitive all-cash agreement to be taken private at $210/share (~$55B EV) by a Public Investment Fund / Silver Lake / Affinity Partners consortium, so at $205.21 the only question that matters is *will the deal… |
| HPQ HP Inc. | Hold | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | -1.6% | $24 ($16–$31) | — | HP is a cheap, cash-generative, high-dividend mature hardware and printing business trading at ~8× earnings — the debate is not quality (it isn't a great business) but whether ~$2.8–3.0B of annual free cash flow returned via buybacks and a 5.4% dividend is enough to offset a slowly shrinking core… |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | -1.3% | $66 ($42–$92) | — | Skyworks is a cheap, cash-generative, 4.5%-yielding RF-chip supplier whose revenue has fallen three years running as its smartphone franchise matured and concentrated on one customer — the stock screens as value, but the growth is gone, the chart is broken, and the entire forward story now hinges… |
| SATS EchoStar Corporation | Avoid | 8 | 2 | 5 | — | -6.6% | $105 ($35–$210) | — | EchoStar is not a growth compounder — it is a highly leveraged bet on the value of its wireless spectrum and the DISH/Boost wireless build, wrapped around a shrinking legacy satellite/broadband business (Hughes) and a ~$29B net-debt load roughly equal to its entire market cap; the equity is… |