Every constituent, scored 0–10 on Downside Risk (lower = safer), Growth Quality, and Exponential Potential, with price, YTD, a base-case fair value (and its bear–bull range), and a one-line take. Click a ticker for the full interactive report. ← research hub
◆ Accumulation band for XLE itself: roughly $51–$53 — the index is richly priced, so dollar-cost-averaging on dips toward the 50/200-day average (near $51) beats chasing new highs.
XLE (market-cap-weighted) vs RSPG (equal-weight), both rebased to 100 a year ago. When the cap-weighted line pulls ahead, the biggest names are carrying the index. Past year: XLE +22% vs RSPG +28% — a -5 pt spread, so broad participation — concentration is LOW.
How many of the 2 names are actually participating — a check on whether the index is broad-based or driven by a handful of mega-caps. Right now breadth looks mixed.
| Name | Verdict | Risk | Growth | Exp | Price | YTD | Fair value (range) | Entry zone | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKR Baker Hughes Company | Watch | 4 | 6 | 4 | $53 | +15.9% | $60 ($42–$78) | — | Baker Hughes is a cheap, financially-sturdy energy-equipment cyclical that is quietly re-rating from "oilfield services" toward "energy infrastructure" — its IET segment (LNG turbomachinery, gas power-gen, data-center power, CCS) just posted a record $33.1B backlog at a 1.5× book-to-bill, but the… |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | Hold | 7 | 8 | 6 | — | +41.8% | $380 ($250–$560) | — | TPL is a genuinely extraordinary business — a debt-free, ~880,000-acre Permian land-and-royalty machine with 97% gross margins, ~30% ROIC and essentially no capital needs — but the stock at 56× trailing / 40× EV-EBITDA already prices in the emerging data-center and desalination optionality, so the… |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 7 | 5 | — | -14.0% | $260 ($130–$400) | — | First Solar is a genuinely cheap (14× earnings), net-cash, US-champion solar-module maker with a 47.9 GW contracted backlog and 42% gross margins — but a large slice of those margins is a government subsidy (Section 45X), the stock is deeply cyclical (beta 1.7) and has just sold off 29% into… |
| TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | +40.3% | $270 ($178–$336) | — | Targa is a genuinely well-run Permian-centric midstream operator riding real NGL volume growth (FY25 revenue $17.1B, record adjusted EBITDA, management guiding FY26 adjusted EBITDA to $5.7–5.9B, +17%) — but the stock has already re-rated to ~24× forward EPS and 15× EV/EBITDA on ~13% top-line… |
| EQT EQT Corporation | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | -1.8% | $52 ($33–$72) | — | EQT is the largest and among the lowest-cost natural-gas producers in the US, now de-levered and gushing free cash flow at high gas prices — but it is fundamentally a commodity price bet: at ~$53 the stock already discounts a healthy gas strip, the Street's $41 consensus sits *below* today's price… |
| WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +21.7% | $76 ($54–$90) | — | Williams owns one of the best natural-gas transportation franchises in North America — the Transco backbone plus a data-center/LNG demand tailwind — but the stock already prices that in at ~32× earnings and 16.8× EV/EBITDA on a 4.1× levered balance sheet with only ~0.8% free-cash-flow yield, so we… |
| COP ConocoPhillips | Hold | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | +11.9% | $118 ($80–$155) | — | ConocoPhillips is a best-in-class, low-cost, low-leverage oil & gas producer trading cheaply (16.5× earnings, 5.9× EV/EBITDA, ~13% free-cash-flow yield) and returning a lot of that cash to holders — but it is fundamentally a bet on the price of oil and gas, not a growth compounder, so it earns a… |
| EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | +24.5% | $140 ($95–$185) | — | EOG is arguably the best-run shale operator in the US — fortress balance sheet (0.37× net-debt/EBITDA), 0.26 beta, ~5.9% FCF yield, ~3.1% dividend — trading at a genuinely cheap ~12.8× trailing earnings; but it is a commodity price-taker with no secular growth, so the honest verdict is Watch: a… |
| KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | +16.6% | $33 ($28–$40) | — | Kinder Morgan is a high-quality, fee-based North American pipeline toll-road throwing off a ~3.7% dividend and mid-single-digit growth — a solid *income* holding, but at 21.5× trailing earnings and only ~3% to our base-case fair value it is fairly-to-fully priced, so we rate it Watch rather than… |
| XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | Hold | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | +13.9% | $152 ($95–$195) | — | Exxon is a best-in-class, fortress-balance-sheet cash machine that pumps out ~$52B of operating cash and hands ~$36B/yr back to shareholders — but its earnings ride a volatile, secularly-challenged commodity, growth is low-single-digit at best, and at $137 (near the Street's high-end DCF) it is… |
| CVX Chevron Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +11.0% | $185 ($120–$235) | — | Chevron is a well-run, low-beta integrated oil major throwing off a ~4% dividend and $6B/quarter of shareholder returns, freshly enlarged by the Hess deal (+15% production) — but FY25 revenue fell 4.6% and EPS fell 32% because this is a commodity earner, so we own it *tactically* near the bottom of… |
| HAL Halliburton Company | Hold | 5 | 4 | 3 | — | +16.6% | $38 ($24–$52) | — | Halliburton is a well-run, cheaply-valued oilfield-services leader throwing off real free cash flow ($1.7B FY25), but revenue is *shrinking* (−3.3% in FY25, another roughly flat year guided for FY26) as North America activity fades, and with zero expert conviction behind it, the honest call is… |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +10.5% | $44 ($28–$60) | — | Devon is a low-cost, low-leverage US shale producer trading at a genuinely cheap ~7.5× forward earnings and a ~10.7% free-cash-flow yield, returning cash via a fixed-plus-variable dividend and buybacks — but forward estimates show flat-to-declining earnings and production, so this is a well-run… |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | -17.8% | $100 ($62–$138) | — | Expand Energy is the largest US natural-gas producer (the former Chesapeake, merged with Southwestern), and it is genuinely well-run — a fortress balance sheet, sub-2× EV/EBITDA-adjacent economics, and a 13% free-cash-flow yield. But the low headline multiple is a *peak-cycle* multiple on gas… |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +63.8% | $250 ($175–$340) | — | MPC is a best-in-class, shareholder-friendly downstream refiner throwing off large buybacks and a growing MPLX midstream distribution — but it is a *cyclical, not a compounder*, the stock trades within 0.3% of its 52-week high after a +57% run, and there is no expert conviction behind it in our KB… |
| OKE ONEOK, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +19.5% | $90 ($66–$112) | — | ONEOK is a well-run, fee-heavy natural-gas-and-NGL toll road that pays a ~4.8% dividend and grew EBITDA 13% last quarter — but after a multi-year acquisition spree it carries 4.3× net-debt/EBITDA, forward EPS growth is only high-single-digits and decelerating, and the stock already trades right at… |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | +18.9% | $52 ($34–$74) | — | Occidental is a cheap, low-beta, aggressively-deleveraging Permian-heavy oil producer that just sold its chemicals arm (OxyChem) to attack its debt — but with the chemicals cash engine gone the top line shrinks, forward EPS is flat-to-declining on flat oil, and the whole equity is ultimately a… |
| PSX Phillips 66 | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +36.7% | $180 ($125–$235) | — | Phillips 66 is a well-run, integrated downstream energy company trading at roughly fair value — a cyclical cash-return story (2.8% dividend, buybacks) whose earnings gyrate violently with refining margins, not a secular grower; we rate it Watch because there is no margin of safety at ~$176 and no… |
| SLB SLB N.V. (Schlumberger) | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +17.6% | $52 ($34–$66) | — | SLB is the highest-quality, most global oilfield-services company in the world, trading cheap (13.5× FY27E, 2.6% yield, 6.9% FCF yield) after a Middle-East-disruption-driven earnings dip — but it is a *deeply cyclical, low-growth* business with falling FY25 revenue and margins, zero expert… |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | +64.5% | $255 ($175–$340) | — | Valero is the highest-quality independent refiner in the US — fortress balance sheet (0.6× net-debt/EBITDA), disciplined capital returns, and a Q1'26 that swung from a year-ago loss to $4.22/share — but you are being asked to pay a near-cycle-high price for a business whose earnings are *defined*… |
| APA APA Corporation | Hold | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | +32.3% | $36 ($20–$52) | — | APA is a cheap, low-beta, cash-generative oil & gas producer (FY25 FCF $1.8B, 7.5× earnings, net-debt/EBITDA 0.75×) that is doing the right defensive things — cutting costs, paying down debt — but it has no structural growth (revenue and production are flat-to-declining), so it is a Watch: a… |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 3 | 2 | $172 | +14.4% | $185 ($115–$235) | — | Diamondback is one of the best-run low-cost operators in the Permian Basin, but it is a commodity price-taker whose forward earnings are expected to *decline* ($20 FY26E EPS → ~$16 FY30E), it carries ~2.5× net-debt/EBITDA after the Endeavor deal, and the Street's $214 target bakes in an oil-price… |