Synthos Research · AI & technology · all questions · the Conviction Board
When will AGI arrive?
Our feasibility panel rates foundation-model progress 70/100 — real but decelerating debate, with 18% dissent and honest disagreement on timelines (the tracked range runs from 'scaling is hitting walls' to 'imminent'). We publish the dispersion rather than a fake point estimate; what's measurable is that capital is behaving as if it's close (see the compute and power calls).
Synthos Score (parent prediction): 70/100 · graded in public
Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 6, 2026 · distilled from 53,000+ dated, attributed expert claims, weighted by verified track record · updated weeklyWant the full picture? The complete call — the dialectic, what would change our mind, and the live change-log — is on the prediction page. Track it and we'll email you the moment it moves.