SYNTHOS RESEARCH

Synthos Predictions · Macro · Geopolitics & trade

Is deglobalization the new regime?

Synthos Score: 61/100 — bullish, ▲ rising. The experts' case: fragmentation is structural, not cyclical — tariffs, reshoring, industrial policy, and the weaponization of trade are a decade-long rewiring of supply chains. Distilled from 4,539 claims by 52 tracked voices, weighted by verified track record.

Synthos Research · synthosresearch.com · as of July 5, 2026 · updated weekly

⟳ Prediction opened  July 5, 2026  — changes will be logged here, publicly

Synthos Score
61
▲ rising (66 → 70 over 12mo)
Disagreement
39%
bear-side weight
Evidence base
4,539
claims · 52 voices
Top voices
Geopolitical Cousins · Luke Gromen · Jordi Visser
by capped precision

Synthos Score = precision-weighted expert conviction (bull-share of directional claims; each voice capped, feeds collapsed to persons, recency-decayed). The Frontier Gap gauge arrives when this prediction's market counterpart is wired.

The dialectic — strongest case on each side

▲ The bull case
“Reshoring and industrial policy are accelerating across both parties; supply-chain security now outranks efficiency — a capex supercycle with an inflationary floor.”

Geopolitical Cousins + Jordi Visser · 2025–26

▼ The bear case
“Tariff détente and normalization remain live — trade flows have historically re-routed rather than collapsed.”

Bear cohort · ~38% of directional weight

Every claim traces to a dated source in the Synthos knowledge base. We show the disagreement — that's the product, not a bug.

Prediction history — and when we changed our mind

Jul ’25 · 66now · 61

Weekly recompute; the line compounds in value every month it exists.

  • Jul 05 2026 Prediction opened publicly at 61 (rising) — genesis entry.
  • next Every future move logged here with the evidence that moved it.

What would change our mind

  1. A broad tariff rollback deal between the US and China.
  2. Reshoring capex announcements failing to convert into actual construction spend.
  3. Freight/trade volumes re-accelerating to pre-2024 trend.

These falsifiers are logged with the call and graded in public. Honesty is the product.

Track this prediction.
One email the moment the Synthos Score moves — with the evidence that moved it. No noise, unsubscribe anytime.

So what — where this prediction points

Underpins the reshoring/industrials exposure in Synthos One and the supply-chain risk flags across deep dives.

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