SYNTHOS RESEARCH

Dorian LPG LPG

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-03

$37.78
Watch
Risk 7Growth 4Exponential 2Fair value $44 $27–$57

The 20-second read

What it does
Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE: LPG) is a pure-play owner and operator of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) — the largest class of ships that transport liquefied petroleum gas (propane/butane), primarily on the long-haul US-Gulf-to-Asia and Middle-East-to-Asia routes.
Where it stands
$37.78 · Watch · fair value ~$44 (+16% vs price) · Risk 7/10, Growth 4/10
Where it's going
A cash-gushing VLGC rate cycle at 8× earnings and a ~7.8% yield — it gets actionable on a reclaim of the 50-DMA (~$40) or a flush toward the 200-DMA (~$32); a freight-rate rollover (FY28 estimates already pencil EPS nearly halving) is what breaks it.

At a glance

VerdictWatch — systematic Synthos tier
Price (2026-07-06)$37.78 · market cap ~$1.62B · +4.9% on the day
Synthos scores (0–10)Downside Risk 7 · Growth Quality 4 · Exponential Potential 2
Synthos fair value (base case)~$44+16% · full range $27 (bear) – $57 (bull)
Street consensus$55 — but that is a single price target (high = low = median = $55); 4 Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell, consensus "Hold" — context, not our anchor
Valuation8.3× trailing EPS · 8.8× FY26A / 5.3× FY27E · EV/EBITDA 6.8× · P/B 1.41× (all-tangible book $26.74/sh) · FCF yield 11.8%
Dividend$2.95/sh TTM ≈ 7.8% yield, ~54% payout — irregular by design (rate-linked), not a promise
Exponential Potential2/10 · Low — a fixed fleet at spot freight rates; consensus has FY28 EPS nearly halving off the FY27 spike
TechnicalsDeteriorating — below the 50-DMA ($40.47), RSI 26 (oversold), MACD −1.44, −20.8% off the 52-wk high ($47.72), though still +57.9% off the low and above the 200-DMA ($32.37)
ConvictionNone — 0 expert-panel claims on the company; 1–2 sell-side analysts per estimate year. You are on your own here, and we say so.
Position sizingIf triggered: satellite, ≤1–2%, income/cyclical sleeve — never a core anchor
Next catalyst2026-07-31 Q1 FY27 earnings (Street EPS $2.25, rev ~$170M)
Single biggest riskVLGC spot-rate rollover — the whole P&L is freight-rate leverage, and consensus already pencils FY28 EPS down ~47% from FY27

One-line thesis. Dorian LPG is a pure-play Very Large Gas Carrier owner riding a strong LPG-freight cycle — FY26 EPS $4.55 (+113% YoY), a fourth-quarter blowout ($1.90 vs $1.41 est), an 11.8% FCF yield and a 7.8% dividend — but this is a spot-rate cyclical whose EPS did $7.63 → $2.14 → $4.55 in three fiscal years, insiders have been selling at $35–45, the chart just lost its 50-DMA, and consensus itself has earnings nearly halving in FY28, so we Watch rather than chase: the 8× multiple is the market correctly refusing to capitalize peak freight rates.

◆ Synthos call — Watch A cash-gushing VLGC rate cycle at 8× earnings and a ~7.8% yield — it gets actionable on a reclaim of the 50-DMA (~$40) or a flush toward the 200-DMA (~$32); a freight-rate rollover (FY28 estimates already pencil EPS nearly halving) is what breaks it.
Downside Risk (lower = safer)
7/10 · High
Spot VLGC freight is brutally cyclical (EPS $7.63 → $2.14 → $4.55 in three years), $1.6B small cap, net-debt/EBITDA 1.30×, a related-party pool structure, and a cluster of insider sales at $35–45 — the 0.78 beta badly understates cargo-rate risk.
Growth Quality
4/10 · Moderate
Fat TTM margins (net 40.5%) and ROIC ~11% are rate-driven, not structural — FY28–FY30 revenue estimates ($405–432M) sit BELOW FY24's actual $561M; this is mean-reversion, not growth.
Exponential Potential
2/10 · Low
A fixed fleet hauling a commodity at spot rates — no acceleration, no compounding TAM; estimates themselves pencil FY28 EPS nearly halving. The opposite of an exponential.
⚖ Reverse-DCF cross-check Market-implied growth ≈ 5%/yr To justify today’s $38, earnings would have to compound roughly 5% a year for 10 years (9% discount rate). Analysts forecast ~-1%/yr, so the market is pricing in MORE than what the Street expects.
What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Buy — CoreOwn it as a foundation — start or add now, size it for years, let dips be gifts.
Buy — TacticalGood price + confirmed trend + a defined exit — buy the setup, not a marriage.
WatchWe want the business, just not at this price/setup — act only when the listed trigger hits.
HoldFine to keep if you own it — no reason to buy more; new money does better elsewhere.
AvoidDon't own it — the problem is the business or the expectations, so a cheaper price won't fix it.

In plain English

Dorian owns a fleet of giant ships (VLGCs — Very Large Gas Carriers) that haul liquefied petroleum gas — mostly propane — across oceans, chiefly from US export terminals to Asia. When shipping rates are high, the company mints money; when rates fall, profits can drop by two-thirds in a single year. That is exactly what its history shows.

Right now rates are good: last fiscal year profits more than doubled, the final quarter smashed expectations, and the company pays a dividend yielding almost 8%. The stock also looks very cheap — about 8 times earnings. So why aren't we buying?

The one big worry: LPG freight rates are set daily by a volatile spot market. If the rate cycle turns — new ship deliveries, a trade disruption, an arbitrage window closing — earnings and the dividend shrink together, and there is nothing management can do about it.


Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range

2128354350Jul '25Sep '25Nov '25Feb '26Apr '26Jul '2652w hi $4850-DMA 40Price 38200-DMA 3252w lo $24

Solid = price · dashed = 50-day average · dotted = 200-day average · amber = 52-week high/low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.

Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations

2027354250Jul '25Sep '25Nov '25Feb '26Apr '26Jul '2620-day avg 40Price 38

The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.

RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100

705030Jul '25Sep '25Nov '25Feb '26Apr '26Jul '26RSI 44.7

Above 70 (red band) = overbought, below 30 (green band) = oversold. Currently 45.

MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum

0Jul '25Sep '25Nov '25Feb '26Apr '26Jul '26signal -1.0MACD -1.4

Blue crossing above amber (bars flip green) = momentum turning up; below (bars red) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.

Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLE (sector)), set to 100 a year ago

85111138165191Jul '25Sep '25Nov '25Feb '26Apr '26Jul '26LPG 146XLE (sector) 122S&P 500 120

Solid = LPG · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLE (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.

Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate

00011$0BFY23EPS $4$1BFY24EPS $8$0BFY25EPS $3$0BFY26EEPS $4$1BFY27EEPS $7$0BFY28EEPS $4$0BFY29EEPS $4$0BFY30EEPS $0

Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.

Key stats an RIA wants

Price$37.78
Market cap$2B
P/E trailing
P/E FY26E / FY27E9× / 5×
EV / Sales4.2×
EV / EBITDA6.8×
Gross margin57.5%
Net margin40.5%
Dividend yield7.81%
Beta0.781
52-wk range$24 – $48
RSI(14)26
50 / 200-DMA$40 / $32
12-mo return+47% (SPY +21%)
Street target$55 ($55–$55)
Analyst grades4 Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell
FMP ratingA
Next earnings2026-08-05

What the experts actually said 0 traceable claims on LPG · showing the highest-conviction voices

Every claim reconciles to a real claim_id in the Synthos knowledge base — this is the evidence the verdict is built on, not vibes. Management (the company itself) is shown but half-weighted; one cautionary voice is included on purpose.

1. What it is

Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE: LPG) is a pure-play owner and operator of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) — the largest class of ships that transport liquefied petroleum gas (propane/butane), primarily on the long-haul US-Gulf-to-Asia and Middle-East-to-Asia routes. Established 2013, IPO May 2014, headquartered in Stamford, CT; CEO John C. Hadjipateras; ~577 employees; Marshall Islands incorporation (hence the 0% income-tax line across every year in the filings). The profile in our data file states the operational fleet was twenty-two VLGCs as of May 27, 2022 — that fleet count is dated, a gap we flag rather than paper over.

Revenue mix (from the segment filings, latest available FY2023): essentially one business — "Net pool revenues — related party" $364.5M of $389.7M total, plus time-charter revenues $22.7M and other $2.5M. The "related party" label matters: most of the fleet earns through the Helios LPG Pool, a joint marketing pool, so reported revenue is a net share of pool earnings rather than direct voyage billing. Segment data beyond FY2023 is not in our file — another honest gap.

The economic engine is simple: fleet size is roughly fixed, so revenue ≈ spot VLGC freight rates × utilization, and with high fixed costs and cheap fixed-rate debt, rate swings flow through to EPS with enormous leverage in both directions.

2. The expert thesis (traceable)

No expert-panel coverage — this note is fundamentals-driven. The Synthos KB contains zero claims on Dorian LPG the company. A search for "LPG" surfaces only two macro claims about LPG the commodity — geopolitical_cousins (2026-03-05, conviction 72–75, skill 1.0) arguing India is exposed because ~90% of its LPG imports transit Hormuz while it loses its discounted Russian-crude tailwind (geopolitical_cousins-yAU4gHSClcY:3390273088, geopolitical_cousins_m-yAU4gHSClcY:89d1b90c72). That is tangential context, not a thesis on this stock — and note a Hormuz disruption would cut both ways for a shipowner: freight-risk premia and re-routed ton-miles up, but cargo volumes at risk.

Sell-side coverage is nearly as thin: 1–2 analysts per forward estimate year, and the "consensus" price target of $55 is a single target (high, low and median are all $55). This is the honest house standard for screen-surfaced names: the verdict below rests on the filings, the estimates and the price action — nothing else — and the absence of informed voices is itself a reason for conservative sizing.

3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases

Score0–10The read
Downside Risk (lower = safer)7 · HighThe balance sheet is fine (net-debt/EBITDA 1.30×, current ratio 2.67, interest coverage 7.1×) — the risk is the business: spot-rate EPS whiplash ($7.63 → $2.14 → $4.55 across FY24–FY26), a $1.6B small cap, a related-party pool structure, thin analyst coverage, a cluster of insider sales at $35–45, and a tape that just lost its 50-DMA with RSI 26. The 0.781 beta measures correlation, not danger.
Growth Quality4 · ModerateTTM net margin 40.5%, ROE 17.9%, ROIC 11.3%, income quality 1.09 (cash confirms earnings) — genuinely profitable today. But it is all rate, no compounding: consensus revenue for FY28 ($410M), FY29 ($405M) and FY30 ($432M) is below FY24's actual $561M. Zero R&D, no pricing power, no operating flywheel.
Exponential Potential2 · LowFixed fleet × commodity spot rates = no second derivative to own. Consensus pencils FY27 EPS spiking to ~$7.15 then falling ~47% to $3.81 in FY28 and staying flat. Room-to-run logic does not apply to a ship pool.

The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions labeled; ~12–18-month fair values, no false-precision probability blend):

CaseKey assumptionsFair value
BullThe FY27 rate spike lands as the two covering analysts model (EPS ~$7.15, rev ~$598M) and rates stay firm into FY28; the market pays ~8× spike earnings, aided by the ~7.8% yield. Roughly the lone Street target ($55).~$57 (+51%)
Base (our anchor)Rates stay decent through FY27 then normalize as consensus says; value it on mid-cycle EPS ~$4.65 (average of FY23–FY26 actuals: $4.31, $7.63, $2.14, $4.55) at ~9.5× — equivalently ~6.2× FY27E or ~1.65× tangible book — while collecting the dividend.~$44 (+16%)
BearThe cycle rolls early (FY25 rerun: EPS ~$2), the dividend is cut with it, and the stock de-rates to ~1.0× tangible book ($26.74/sh) — where asset value, not earnings, sets the floor.~$27 (−29%)

Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$44 (+16%) — deliberately below the $55 "consensus," because that consensus is one analyst's target struck off spike-year earnings. The FMP composite rating is A (overall 4/5, DCF score 5/5) — a fair mechanical read of the cash flows, but mechanical models capitalize peak rates; we won't. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.

4. Exponential Potential

Synthos separates compounders from exponentials. Dorian is neither — it is a cyclical income vehicle:

Exponential Potential: Low (2/10). Own it (if at all) for cycle-and-income, never for compounding.

5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly)

6. Valuation — priced in or room?

The stock screens very cheap: 8.3× trailing EPS, 6.8× EV/EBITDA, 1.41× tangible book, 11.8% FCF yield, 12.0% earnings yield, 7.8% dividend yield; the Graham number computes to $52.30. FMP's mechanical rating is A (DCF score 5/5). The honest counterpoint: cyclicals are supposed to look cheap at high rates — the market is refusing to capitalize spike earnings, and consensus agrees, penciling FY28 EPS down ~47% from the FY27 estimate. On forward numbers the multiple is 8.8× FY26A → 5.3× FY27E → ~9.9× FY28E: the multiple "cheapens" into the spike and re-expands right back as rates normalize. Street context is unusually weak here: one price target ($55 across high/low/median) and a 4-Buy/5-Hold/0-Sell "Hold" consensus. Our $44 base case values it on mid-cycle earnings (~$4.65 at ~9.5×, ≈1.65× tangible book) rather than on either the trailing print or the FY27 spike — the difference between "cheap" and "correctly priced for a cycle" is the whole debate on this name.

7. Technicals (from the tech block)

8. Moat & competitive position

There is no moat in commodity shipping — VLGC freight is a global spot market and Dorian is a price-taker. What Dorian has instead are competitive attributes: a modern pure-play VLGC fleet, scale economics through the Helios pool (shared marketing/utilization — at the cost of related-party opacity), a conservative balance sheet (1.30× net-debt/EBITDA buys staying power through troughs), and US-listing liquidity. The cycle itself is the "asset": VLGC supply (newbuild deliveries) versus US/Middle-East LPG export volumes and ton-mile demand sets rates, and none of that is in management's control.

Peer set (FMP-supplied, market cap): a loose energy-transport basket rather than clean comps — FLEX LNG $1.62B, Navigator Holdings $1.23B (the closest true comp — smaller gas carriers), Dorchester Minerals $1.22B, Global Partners $1.60B, MRC Global $1.17B, NESR $2.79B, NPK International $1.19B, RPC $1.22B, Vermilion Energy $1.34B, Bristow $1.25B. The most relevant VLGC comparators (BW LPG, Avance Gas) are not in the supplied list — judge LPG against the gas-carrier cohort, not this grab-bag.

9. Management, capital allocation & guidance

10. Catalysts & what to watch

Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): upgrade trigger — price reclaims the 50-DMA (~$40) with the Q1 print at/above $2.25; downgrade trigger — a Q1 miss plus a dividend cut, or a decisive break of the 200-DMA (~$32), which would say the FY28 down-cycle is arriving a year early.

11. Key risks

12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring

Watch. Dorian LPG is a well-run, cleanly-accounted, conservatively-levered way to own the VLGC freight cycle, and at 8.3× trailing with an 11.8% FCF yield and a 7.8% dividend it is genuinely cheap if rates hold — the two covering analysts even model an FY27 EPS spike to ~$7.15. But three things stop us short of a Buy today: the setup just broke (below the 50-DMA, MACD negative, 3-month relative strength now lagging the S&P), insiders sold into the highs, and the estimate curve itself says FY28 earnings nearly halve — meaning the market's refusal to pay more than 8× is rational, not an inefficiency. With zero expert-panel coverage and one-analyst price-target "consensus," conviction inputs are too thin to override the price action.


Provenance & disclosures