Layer 1 · Crypto deep dive · 2026-07-04
Sui SUI
Underweight — dilution or momentum headwinds; demand a discount. Below the 200-day ($1.07) — trend is broken; wait for reclaim before accumulating.
Price
At a glance
The four pillars
Each scored 0–100 relative to the Layer 1 sector (not absolute). Composite weights are sector-specific.
Valuation
SUI is a base-layer economy; the honest denominator is P/REV (market cap ÷ fees + MEV). It prints a P/Revenue of 6036.8× — absurd by equity standards, which is why the signal is the sector-relative z-score and its trend, never the level. The moat lens (value-secured ÷ mcap, the 'cost to turn it off') carries more weight than the multiple. On the Value pillar it screens rich versus its sector (28/100 sector-relative).
Tokenomics & dilution
Float is only 40% of FDV — a large low-float/high-FDV overhang. Vesting VCs/team are price-insensitive sellers; this is the single most deterministic bearish force in crypto and it caps the rating. Hard-capped max supply (10,000,000,000) — no perpetual inflation. Unlock dates are contractual and public — the closest thing crypto has to an earnings calendar, and the market systematically underprices them. (Live unlock-calendar integration is the next data layer.)
Network & moat
Value capture: INDIRECT — value accrues via staking/collateral/gas demand. Network/moat is this token's heaviest pillar — the Metcalfe lens (value scales with the square of real users) and the 'economic value destroyed if you turn it off' test. Winners compound network effects; that's why the moat pillar is slow-moving and structural.
How to invest
Underweight — dilution or momentum headwinds; demand a discount. Below the 200-day ($1.07) — trend is broken; wait for reclaim before accumulating.
Honest limits
Crypto is one liquidity trade in many costumes — in a liquidity drain every sector correlates toward 1, so this rating is relative selection within crypto, not diversification. The macro regime gate sizes total crypto exposure; the score picks within it. Reflexivity breaks models faster than in equities (usage → price → usage). Regulatory and hack tail-risks are sized with flags, not forecast.