DePIN · Crypto deep dive · 2026-07-04
Filecoin FIL
Hold / watch — own it for sector exposure, not as a standout; trade around a core. Below the 200-day ($1.02) — trend is broken; wait for reclaim before accumulating.
Price
At a glance
The four pillars
Each scored 0–100 relative to the DePIN sector (not absolute). Composite weights are sector-specific.
Valuation
FIL sits in crypto's physical-infrastructure sleeve. The one number that matters long-run is demand-side revenue vs token emissions — is real usage paying for the network, or is dilution subsidizing supply? Most names in this sleeve are supply-heavy/demand-light today; the forecastable signal is the trend of that coverage ratio, not the narrative. On the Value pillar it screens mid-range versus its sector (60/100 sector-relative).
Tokenomics & dilution
Float is only 41% of FDV — a large low-float/high-FDV overhang. Vesting VCs/team are price-insensitive sellers; this is the single most deterministic bearish force in crypto and it caps the rating. Uncapped/emissive supply — net issuance must be netted against any staking yield to judge real yield. Unlock dates are contractual and public — the closest thing crypto has to an earnings calendar, and the market systematically underprices them. (Live unlock-calendar integration is the next data layer.)
Network & moat
Value capture: INDIRECT — value accrues via staking/collateral/gas demand. Moat comes from liquidity, integrations, and switching costs — real but contestable; in crypto, forks and incentive wars erode moats faster than in equities.
How to invest
Hold / watch — own it for sector exposure, not as a standout; trade around a core. Below the 200-day ($1.02) — trend is broken; wait for reclaim before accumulating.
Honest limits
Crypto is one liquidity trade in many costumes — in a liquidity drain every sector correlates toward 1, so this rating is relative selection within crypto, not diversification. The macro regime gate sizes total crypto exposure; the score picks within it. Reflexivity breaks models faster than in equities (usage → price → usage). Regulatory and hack tail-risks are sized with flags, not forecast.